Sunday, December 13, 2009

Stick a Bolt in 'em: Dal 17, SD 20

A second straight games full of missed opportunities has the once division-leading Cowboys now at 8-5 and in dangerous jeopardy of missing the playoffs, firing a head coach, and doubting the abilities of its franchise quarterback.

Dallas failed to punch in a game-tying touchdown on four straight plays from within the Chargers five yard line, and Nick Folk missed another field goal from the 40-49 yard range as San Diego won its eighth straight, beating Dallas at Cowboys Stadium, 20-17. And while it might be head coach Wade Phillips who will end up taking the ultimate fall for the Cowboys failures in December, the players failed to execute when the ball was put in their hands.

The Cowboys ran Marion Barber four consecutive times inside the Chargers 5-yard line on a drive in the second quarter, and each time the Chargers stopped the run. Three of those tries were from the 1-yard line. I wasn't a fan of Jason Garrett calling the back-to-back fade routes early in the season, but you can't fault an offensive coordinator for believing that one of the biggest offensive lines in the NFL can push forward three feet to get into the end zone. Sure, it'd be great to get a play-action pass worked into the mix, but if the Cowboys can't punch the ball from the 1-yard line on three chances, it's on the players.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Romo returns as holder

It's official. Tony Romo will be the holder for the Cowboys' field goal unit on Sunday when Dallas hosts San Diego.

Punter Mat McBriar had been the holder for Dallas this year, taking over after Brad Johnson served as the holder for Nick Folk during his first two seasons. But with McBriar falling on his sword -- hands? -- for three of Folk's eight misses this season, Cowboys special teams coach Joe DeCamiliis now has a new operation for three pointers. And most importantly, Cowboys fans should not be worried.

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

J-Ho got crazy game: Dal 102, Phx 101

Josh Howard returned to the court last night as the Mavs edged the Suns, 102-101, and Howard netted 18 of his 20 points in the second half. For the Mavs, the win brought them even with Phoenix at 15-7, the third-best record in the Western Conference. The Mavs have a two-game lead over Houston in the Division. But while that's all well and good to be playing well enough, it's more important to have the team's should be true #2 guy back.

For the last few years, it's supposed to have been Dirk and Josh, but it's easy to make the case that it's really been about Dirk and Jet, Dirk and Kidd. Howard struggled most of last season with his ankle injury and missed 13 games this season before returning to action last night. The confusing part is not that Howard was able to instantly contribute on both ends of the court, but the fact that offensively he was more potent in the second half than the first half.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Tiger Woods legacy won't be too badly burned

With more and more women coming out of the rough to claim they let Tiger Woods put it in the cup, many are speculating what type of hit his overall image will take. The first $1 billion athlete now has somewhere around nine women saying they hooked up with them. And while Tiger's once golden-boy image might get shaken up for now, this will be something that most people will forgive and forget about in a year or two.



Consider a couple other high-profile athletes who had their image take major hits:

Michael Vick
Just yesterday Michael Vick returned to Atlanta with his new team the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Falcons fans booed their one-time franchise quarterback, but outside of a hurt fan base that really was probably more upset that the starting quarterback and running back were out, no one mentioned WHY the fans were booing Vick. No one said during the broadcast or on SportsCenter or any other highlight show, "...Vick is back in Atlanta facing his former team after spending nearly two years in jail for bankrolling a violent dogfighting organization." Instead, the story was more about how Vick finally had a breakthrough game this season -- running for a touchdown and passing for another -- and may be on his way back to becoming an important part of an NFL team.

People may not have entirely forgiven Vick, and the boos show they haven't entirely forgotten, but more important than either of those factors is the fact that sports fans in general don't care anymore than Vick spent two years in jail. Now it's apparently time to celebrate his success.

Kobe Bryant
Last summer the Lakers superstar won a fourth championship in his sixth appearance in the NBA Finals. He hoisted the Larry O'Brien trophy with the #24 on his back, a number he changed to from his old #8 to forget about the past and start anew. It was a past that included Shaquille O'Neal playing the role of co-star to three previous titles. It also helped distance the future hall of famer from a past that included allegations of rape. While the rape charges were ultimately unfounded, Bryant never hid from the fact that he cheated on his wife. That didn't seem to bother too many basketball fans as Kobe's new #24 jersey has consistently been one of the NBA's best sellers, just as good as that old #8 without all the baggage. Sure, at the time, Kobe's image took a hit. He lost endorsements, but that appeared to be more because of the criminal charges rather than the infidelity.

Ray Lewis
Do you remember Ray Lewis as a player who was arrested on allegations of murder at a Super Bowl, or the man who won a Super Bowl MVP while leading a punishing Ravens defense to a championship? Any athlete who gets the opportunity to make a comeback on his career with a renewed chance to prove himself on the field and performs will erase most of the memory of any ugly past transgressions.



So how long will the lingering effects of this entire ordeal follow Tiger Woods around? The rest of his career? Doubtful. Sure, this story will always be an asterisk, an afterthought, on his career, but it will never be the biggest aspect of his overall story. Tiger Woods will be remembered as the most decorated golfer and perhaps the most decorated athlete of all time. Oh sure, there was that whole affair thing back in late 2009 when it surfaced that he had a that whole affair thing, but remember how good Tiger was throughout his career. That's how he'll be remembered.

And as far as these women who are heartbroken over Tiger only wanting them for sex, don't expect anyone to show up to your pity party. None of these women are coming out and saying things like Tiger told them he planned on running away with them. None of them claim he said he would leave his wife for them. Heck, none of them even deny they knew he was married. So if the man is cheating on his wife, why would you deserve any better as the woman who knowingly helped his cheat on his family. Please don't pretend to be the victim in all this. You're not. These women wanted nothing more than Tiger did, to hook up. Now they will get hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars for little more than having boobs and luring a Tiger into the trap.

History will look back favorably on Tiger Woods -- right or wrong as it may be. This will follow him for a little while, but in the big picture, how bad of a hit will his image truly take? Just look at other athletes who have faced public scrutiny. And while few if any other athletes have ever had the stature of Tiger Woods and as high a pedestal to fall from, when people remember Tiger Woods, he will still be standing atop that pedestal as the greatest golfer ever.

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Giant disappointment: Dal 24, NYG 31

The Cowboys came into Giants Stadium atop the NFC East with a chance to avenge an early season loss and begin the month of December on the right foot. Instead, the New York Giants amputated that foot and kicked Dallas in the groin with it, en route to a 31-24 win over Dallas to put New York back into the division race while raising the annual December doubts in Dallas.

The Cowboys offense looked sharp enough, but it was the defense and special teams - two areas that had been so strong while the offense tried to find its groove midseason - that provided the biggest letdown. Both phases of the game gave up backbreaking big plays. After the offense scored in the third quarter, the defense gave up a 74-yard pass to Brandon Jacobs, the longest play of his career by 30 yards. Later in the game, when Dallas so desperately needed a stop for a chance to overcome a 7-point deficit, Domenik Hixon daggered the Cowboys with a 79-yard punt return for the game-icing score.

Dallas won the turnover battle (2 to 1), won the time of possession (38:50 to 21:10), won the yardage battle (424 to 337), won 3rd down conversions (9/17, 53% to 4/10, 40%), got more first downs (27 to 15), and ran more than 30 more plays than the Giants (80 to 49). And none of it mattered.

Dallas had a fourth down on its last real chance to keep the game close when there was still ample time on the clock, and where was Jason Witten? The man who already had 13 catches on the day was in the backfield blocking instead of running a route. The result: Romo throws a checkdown to Barber that wasn't long enough, turning the ball over on downs and clinching the win for New York. Romo and Witten connected 14 times on the day, with another catch tacked on late in the game, but not having him available on 4th down seemed more than curious.

The Cowboys were able to tack on a touchdown inside of one minute left in the game, a Romo pass to Miles Austin who played possum on a stop-and-go route to the end zone. With :58 seconds left, the Cowboys onside kick attempt hit Sam Hurd within 10 yards, giving the ball to the Giants. And while the ref who threw the flag on Hurd was in no position to actually see who it touched first, being that the ball hit on the other side of their bodies, the play would have been reviewed anyway, and it was clearly touched first by Hurd, but not by much.

Both teams had 10 days off, as they each played on Thanksgiving. But New York seemed to respond after a thumping in Denver. The Cowboys had strung together a streak of nine games without allowing more than 21 points, a streak dating back to the home-opening 33-31 loss to the Giants. The defense had given up just 14.2 points per game, including seven games where the opponents were held under 20 points. In fact, only the Giants have been able to put up more than 21 points on Dallas this season. Too bad they play twice a year.

What the Giants lacked in quantity, they made up for with quality in terms of offense, with 7.0 yards per play compared to the Cowboys' 5.3 ypp. Steve Smith made several big catches to go along with Jacobs' homerun. On the ground, Ahmad Bradshaw was able to add important rushing yards when needed, including a 29-yarder to get into the red zone.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys defense looked good on paper, and even a few times in real life, but when it mattered most, the defense couldn't hold the fort. And it looked like there were plenty of signs that things could be shaky down the stretch after the defense crumbled late in the first half. Dallas had just gone up 10-0 when the Giants needed just five plays (one of them an incomplete pass) to respond with a TD of their own. New York moved 74 yards in five plays (albeit better than when they went 74 yards in one play). The Giants took advantage of a Marion Barber fumble for a short field, leading to another TD, giving New York a 14-10 halftime lead.

(Special Teams) And in the third phase of football, the Cowboys special teams were a little bit too "special" in this one. It's never good to give up a punt return TD, but the Cowboys allowed Hixen to spoil any realistic hopes of a comeback win with his score. At some point, the special teams unit will need to make a legitimate tackle instead of just bouncing off a guy just because he's holding a football. Nick Folk continued to struggle, missing yet another field goal from that 40-49yd range. Missing the 57-yarder is forgivable, but he is now 4-10 on field goals between 40-49 yards and has missed eight field goals this year after missing seven in his first two seasons in the NFL. It's fair to say that while none of his kicks have clearly decided games, he's beginning to cross the line from asset to liability.

It's been easy to take shots at the Dallas offense over the last few weeks -- they don't run enough, too many consecutive fades to the corner, no big plays. There's been a long list of complaints about the offense, but on defense things seemed to be okay. Yeah, there weren't too many takeaways, but opposing teams weren't putting up points. Today, the defense forced a pair of turnovers, the fifth multi-takeaway game for the Cowboys in 2009 (2-PHI, 2-SEA, 3-ATL, 3-CAR). It was a lot better than the -4 turnover battle from the first Cowboys/Giants game.

Early in the game, things looked promising. Gerald Sensabaugh tipped away a pass to the outside. Terence Newman showed great closing speed to break up some passes, including a deep ball over the middle that would have easily put New York in scoring range. Jay Ratliff was able to break into the backfield and force a fumble of Bradshaw to set up the Cowboys first touchdown drive.

While this loss certainly is primarily on the defense and special teams, the Cowboys offense had a chance to pick up some of the slack throughout the game. On the first scoring drive, the Cowboys couldn't capitalize on 1st and Goal from the Giants' 9 yard line. Instead, they settled for a Folk field goal (don't worry, it was from inside 40 yards, where Folk is 10 of 11 this year).

On the Cowboys next drive, they nearly gave the ball up inside the five the ball squirted away from Tashard Choice on a run up the middle. Replay overturned the initial fumble ruling, and Romo found Roy Williams for a touchdown.

Roy Williams
In fact, Roy Williams' first TD was helpful in making us forget his throw-his-hands-over-his-head-and-hope-the-ball-lands-in-them attempt. Williams fought through press coverage within the first five yards, getting past the defender for the score. Williams actually posted his first two-touchdown game since November 11, 2007 with the Lions. He finished the game with 6 catches for 60 yards, including a 25-yarder where he caught a ball thrown slightly behind him on his hip, taking the ball away from the reach of a nearby defender before breaking into the open field for extra yards.

Romo was able to work the ball to plenty of targets early, completing passes to eight different Cowboys in the first half. Jason Witten had his biggest game of the year, catching 14 passes for 156 yards. It might have been better if he'd been in the pattern on the Cowboys 4th down attempt late in the game while trying to mount a comeback. Instead he was in the backfield blocking as Romo hit Marion Barber shy of the first down. Witten did a great job of catching pretty much everything that was thrown to him, including a deflection off a tipped pass. Miles Austin continued his Pro Bowl caliber year, catching 10 passes for 104 yards and a late touchdown that pulled Dallas within 7 points.

A few other thoughts from a loss I still don't understand:

+ Officiating Head-scratcher
Here's a head-scratcher for anyone who understands NFL officiating. Late in the 2nd quarter, the Giants caught the Cowboys in position where several Cowboys were offsides, however before the ball was snapped, the Giants right tackle jumped as well. That ruling should be a neutral zone infraction on the defense and a five-yard penalty. Instead, the Giants were allowed to continue playing, gaining 11 yards for a first down. That's a play that should have been blown dead. The Giants proceeded to score a touchdown on the drive. Not sure if the extra 6 yards would have made a difference or not, but it certainly doesn't help the Cowboys' cause.

+ Blame Leonard Davis for fumble
As the Cowboys were trying to answer the Giants in the 2-minute drill, on 1st and 5 on a screen pass to Marion Barber, Barber got behind right tackle Leonard Davis out in space. Davis seemed to brush aside Mathias Kiwanuka, not really putting a true block on him, and the Giants defensive end knocked the ball from Barber's arms. Barber must not have had a great grip on the ball because the ball-jarring hit didn't pack too strong of a punch. The Giants get the ball on the Dallas 28 and go in for the go-ahead touchdown before the half.

+ Flozell Adams
As the teams went to the half, Flozell Adams cheap shotted one of the Giants, erupting a fight in front of the Giants sideline. A flag was thrown, and the Cowboys began the second half 15-yards in debt. This was an ugly and stupid move by Adams, who seemingly personified the lack of composure the Cowboys demonstrated as the Giants awoke to strike for 14 points in the final two minutes of the first half. Even though this penalty was after the half had expired, it's eerily similar to the dumb 15-yard penalty that Kevin Burnett made two years ago against the Giants just before the half (and of course, the subsequent Jimmy Johnson blow up on the FOX halftime show).

+ End of first half drive
After the Giants scored it's second touchdown in the final two minutes of the first half, I fully expected to take a knee or run a few dive plays to get to the locker room. Instead, the Cowboys launched into a drive to setup a field goal attempt. And while the Cowboys were unable to convert on a 57-yard field goal attempt, it did demonstrate some sort of resolve that most didn't know Dallas had that in it's make in 2009. It's a moral victory, which doesn't really count for much. At some point, Dallas will have to use the talents it demonstrated on that fruitless drive for something more meaningful, such as eeking out a win in the final seconds.

+ Good, bad, ugly coverage
As the Giants made their way down the field to begin the 3rd quarter, the Dallas secondary left Steve Smith, who is quickly becoming one of the more reliable receivers in the game, too open. Alan ball failed to close the gap on Smith, who slipped past a driving Ball and raced 36 yards to the Dallas 25. On the next play, however, Mike Jenkins leapt in front of Mario Manningham for drive-stopping interception, his fourth of the year.

+ Offense, Romo firing on all cylinders
On 3rd and 9, Romo lasers the ball to Miles Austin for a first down. Two plays later on 2nd and 6, Romo again rocketed a ball to Witten just beyond a defender for first down on 9yd line. Then Jason Garrett dialed up a great play: Romo faked handoff to the up-back, faked a toss to Miles Austin heading toward the outside, and hit Roy Williams a step ahead of a DB for the score, 17-14 Dallas. Having Austin in the backfield maked the defense pay extra attention that something "different" may happen. When Romo faked the pitch to Austin, two linebackers headed to the side to cut off Austin, leaving a clear throwing lane for Romo to find Williams for his second TD of the game. FYI: Nov 11, 2007: last time Roy Williams had two TDs in the same game. Romo was 4-for-5 for 48 yards on the drive.

Now the Cowboys find themselves without their lead in the NFC East, tied with the Eagles at 8-4 and currently holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, and only a game ahead of the Giants who swept the season series. The NFC playoff picture just got plenty murkier for the Cowboys, who began the month of December by rekindling doubts of seasons past.

NFC East Standings
NFC EastW-L
Dallas Cowboys8-4
Philadelphia Eagles8-4
New York Giants7-5
Washington Redskins3-9

Dallas still has games remaining against the Eagles and Redskins in the division as well as a home game against the Chargers and a terrifying trip to New Orleans. Some would say Dallas needs three wins in December to clinch the division. Two wins in the final four games should at least mean a playoff berth. But for the next week, the Cowboys must answer questions about their past while trying not start asking the same questions themselves.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Pro Bowl problem

The final Sunday in January. For years that day was synonymous with one thing and one thing only.

The Super Bowl.

But January 31, 2010 - the final Sunday in January - will bring an awkward and eerie feeling to the football world as the NFL plays it's Pro Bowl one week before Super Bowl Sunday on February 7. It's something that was decided prior to the 2009 Pro Bowl which took place in the traditional comforts of Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. But in 2010, the NFL's all-star game will be played in Miami in the exact same stadium as the Super Bowl, just one week earlier.

2010 Pro Bowl moving to Miami

It's not a new notion to have the game moved up to take place between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. The NFL has discussed it multiple times in recent years, and Goodell told the Associated Press last month that having the game precede the Super Bowl would avoid a "somewhat anticlimactic" ending to the season.

The initiative to experiment with the Pro Bowl schedule and location was discussed over the past two years with NFL club owners, the NFL Players Association, the NFL Player Advisory Council, and other players, and it received wide player and club support.

"Moving the Pro Bowl to the Sunday prior to the Super Bowl can add even more excitement to Super Bowl week, one of the most anticipated weeks of the year," said Frank Supovitz, the NFL’s senior vice president of events. "Taking the Pro Bowl to new locations can showcase our top players to more fans around the country. We are also in discussions with key leaders in Hawaii to continue our partnership with the State of Hawaii, which has embraced the Pro Bowl for 30 years."

I suppose there are some positives for this game: fans in the 48 contiguous states may be more likely to go to the game, especially in a rough economy where travel to Hawaii could get pricey. However, since when is travel to a Super Bowl city ever cheap? Fans may flock to Miami to see the Pro Bowl as part of the Super Bowl week festivities, but this game is too close to other playoff games as well as butting into the Super Bowl's spotlight.

Here's a few Pro Bowl problems that must be considered with the game being played one week ahead of the Super Bowl:

1. Participation of Super Bowl participants
Over the past three decades with the Pro Bowl calling Hawaii home, players and coaches would report to Honolulu for a week of fun and sun. The Super Bowl participants? They wouldn't get there until a day or two later, taking a winner's walk into the locker room. It's a pride thing, not being able to be there on time because your team made it to the biggest game of the year.

Now with the game preceding the Super Bowl, if a player like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees has a chance to prepare for BIGGEST GAME OF THE YEAR or horse around in some dinky exhibition game, which do you think they will choose? There are usually players who pull out of the Pro Bowl and are replaced by alternates in the game, but with the game being held a week before the Super Bowl, the teams playing for the championship - which usually represent a significantly high number of Pro Bowlers - won't be participating this season.

2008-09 Season
The original 2009 Pro Bowl roster included eight players who played the week before in the Super Bowl - five players from Arizona and three from Pittsburgh. All eight players participated in the game. (See final roster)

2007-08 Season
In 2008, the Giants and Patriots played one of the most memorable Super Bowls in recent memory. One week later, six of the eight Super Bowl participants played in the Pro Bowl, with Tom Brady and Randy Moss skipping the trip to Hawaii.

2006-07 Season
In 2007, the Colts and Bears had a combined 12 players originally selected to go to the Pro Bowl. All five Colts went, including Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Jeff Saturday. The Bears originally had seven selections, with four of those players (C Olin Kreutz, LB Tommie Harris, LB Lance Briggs, LB Brian Urlacher) bypassing the game after a tough Super Bowl loss citing injury/personal reasons. The Bears did have one player selected as an alternate Pro Bowler who reported for duty.

2005-06 Season
In 2006, after a Pittsburgh-Seattle Super Bowl in Detroit, the nine combined players on the original 2006 Pro Bowl roster from each Super Bowl participant all showed up (four Steelers, five Seahawks). In fact, these teams combined to send three additional players who were originally alternates for the game.

2004-05 Season
In 2005, the Patriots and Eagles met up in Super Bowl XXXIX. One week later, three of the five Patriots and seven of nine Eagles on the original 2005 Pro Bowl roster played in the game (total of 10 of 14 selections played). New England's Corey Dillon and Richard Seymour withdrew citing injury, as did Philadelphia's Terrell Owens and Tra Thomas. Each team also had one additional player make the Pro Bowl as an alternate.

To sum up the last five years to gage Pro Bowl participation among Super Bowl participants, 41 of 51 original Pro Bowl selections - not the injury replacements - did go on to play in the game, a rate of slightly more than 80%. It's easy to see where there could be a drop off, as many players will push themselves to play hurt in the Super Bowl, such as Terrell Owens who played on half a foot for Philly after a strong 2004 season.

The trend is easy to see. Super Bowl participants - for the most part - go to the game. That will absolutely change this season. I guarantee it! Not only do I not think that the average watermark of 80% won't be reached. I doubt that any Super Bowl participants will play in the Pro Bowl, even if it is in the same city as the Super Bowl, thus negating any extensive travel from point to point.

2. Participation of NFC/AFC Championships participants
Not only will we see a drop-off (who are we kidding, a complete NO SHOW) from Super Bowl participants, but there will also be a lack of participants from the conference championship games. The game will be played one week after these teams missed a chance to advance to the Super Bowl. When the consolation prize for some players of going to the Pro Bowl usually three weeks away, it at least allows some time for the heart to heal. Instead, for players selected to the Pro Bowl who lose in the conference championship game, this will be an ugly afterthought that many players will respectfully decline. Here's a look at players who lost in the conference championship game who have/haven't participated in recent Pro Bowls...

2008-09 season: Pittsburgh d. Baltimore, Arizona d. Philadelphia
The conference runners up last season - the Ravens and Eagles - had seven combined Pro Bowl selections, with five from Baltimore and two from Philly. All seven played the Pro Bowl three weeks after their respective conference loss.

2007-08 season: N.Y. Giants d. Green Bay, New England d. San Diego
The Packers had four original Pro Bowl selections, led by Brett Favre in his final season with the Packers. The Chargers had eight selections, with seven of the original eight playing in the game with only Antonio Gates missing the game. The Chargers did have tackle Marcus McNeill play as an alternate for the AFC. Still, of the 12 original selections, 11 suited up for the game.

2006-07 season: Chicago d. New Orleans, Indianapolis d. New England
In the year of the resurgent Saints, QB Drew Brees, T Jammal Brown, and DE Will Smith were selected to the Pro Bowl, with Brown missing the game with an injury. As for the Patriots, who finally were toppled by the Colts en route to the Super Bowl, they had one original selection - Richard Seymour - who did participate in the game. Total combined: 3 out of 4.

2005-06 season: Pittsburgh d. Denver, Seattle d. Carolina
The Panthers were trying to get back to a second Super Bowl in three years while the Broncos were looking to finally break through without John Elway. Neither came to fruition. Instead, each team sent four original selections to Hawai'i, as all eight participated in the game. (Note: this was the season the AFC went to it's third and fourth alternates to fill all three Pro Bowl QB spots. The three original AFC QB selections: Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady. Palmer and Brady withdrew from the game. First alternate Drew Brees (then of San Diego) didn't play. Second alternate Jake Plummer didn't go either. So Manning was joined by Trent Green and Steve McNair as the AFC quarterbacks. Crazy.) Total combined 8 out of 8 original selections played in the game.

2004-05 season: New England d. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia d. Atlanta
Of the 2004 season's conference runners up, the Steelers sent all six original selections (along with three alternates) to the Pro Bowl to join the four Falcons originally named to the game. That's a total of 10 out of 10 original selections.

Combining the totals over of the past five years, we see that of conference championship participants originally named to the Pro Bowl, 39 of 41 players (95%) suited up in Hawai'i. How many of those players were banged up in the NFC or AFC championship game but still were able to make the trip to Honolulu after three weeks off from the physical and mental strain suffered from falling one game shy of the Super Bowl? It seems that a lot of these guys will decide not to push themselves to get ready to play just one week after perhaps the most disappointing loss of their careers.

3. Game-planning of Pro Bowl coaches
The Pro Bowl teams are coached by the coaching staff of the teams that lose the conference championships. Last year, it was Andy Reid (Philadelphia) on the NFC sideline and John Harbaugh (Baltimore) running the AFC squad. In past seasons, those coaches had three weeks to get over their recent loss that left them one game away from the Super Bowl, take a bit of time to relax, and then head to Hawai'i and create an admittedly scaled-down game plan for the Pro Bowl.

Now with the Pro Bowl being played one week ahead of the Super Bowl here is the timeline for these coaches:
Sunday - Lose conference championship game, miss out on going to Super Bowl
Monday - Get over a loss that could have put you on the "next level" of coaching
Tuesday - Travel to the city you would have gone to a week later, but instead of reporting to Miami to coach the Super Bowl, you're prepping for the Pro Bowl amid the hype of the team that just defeated you a few days ago.
Wed/Thurs - Begrudgingly begin coaching up all-stars instead of your team
Sunday - Take the field in Miami one week ahead of when you really wanted to

Regardless of when the Pro Bowl is played - a week before or a week after the Super Bowl - it's never going to be as rewarding as coaching your team to the Super Bowl. I get that. However, it's got to be infinitely easier to deal with the consolation prize of coaching in the Pro Bowl when it's done three weeks after your team lost opposed to just seven days later as an appetizer to your conquerers showcase.

4. Trip to Honolulu Miami?
Is it really that much fun to go to places like Miami, New Orleans, San Diego, etc for the Pro Bowl? Yes, it's great for the economies of those local areas, and any city who could acquire the rights to the game would love to have it. Why not have the Pro Bowl go to other cities in the US that don't have NFL teams (hell, like Los Angeles). All you'd need is a big enough college football stadium to hold at least 50,000 or 60,000 fans. Play it in Lincoln, Neb. or Fayetteville, Ark. What about Las Vegas? (oh yeah, Pacman Jones, nevermind). Maybe Portland, Oregon or Oklahoma City.

That being said, there is a reason that the NFL doesn't shop this game around and play it in different cities each year. It might be nice for that city to have the game, but that's really all it does. There is still the matter of getting other fans up for traveling to the game, not to mention attracting players to actually PLAY in the game.

There is already a percentage of players who pull out of the Pro Bowl each year even when they aren't hurt. The lure of playing in Honolulu and bringing the whole family to the islands for a fun end-of-season vacation isn't quite the same as going to Detroit the week before a Super Bowl at Ford Field. No one wants to be in the cold weather of North Texas in January 2011 the week before Super Bowl XLV. Sure the stadium is domed, but certain places just aren't travel hotspots during winter. Honolulu presented a platform for the Pro Bowl to always have a unique feel of being somewhere special, somewhere different, somewhere that isn't on the regular road map of NFL teams. By moving the game to a location that simply follows around the Super Bowl like a wannabe lackey, it certainly tarnishes the luster of the Pro Bowl.

Conclusion
The official experiment will begin after the conference championships wrap up on January 24. We'll see just how willing and able the coaches and players of the teams who reach the conference championship game are to work the following week. Don't expect a big turnout from some of the bigger names who advance deep into the postseason. And when those big names decide not to make the trip, the fan turnout will react accordingly. And don't expect the Pro Bowl to continue it's deviation from Honolulu after this experiment flounders, flops and ultimately fails.

Will it be a December to remember?

The Dallas Cowboys late-season woes have been well-documented in the 13 seasons since America's Team last won a playoff game. With the Cowboys sitting at 8-3 with a one-game lead in the NFC East, the final five games on the 2009 schedule - perhaps the most challenging five game stretch this franchise has faced in some time - seem even more treacherous than in years past.

The Cowboys will finish the 2009 regular season with three of five games on the road, three games against NFC East rivals, and two against division-leaders including undefeated New Orleans. It begins Sunday at New York, where the Cowboys were beaten down last season without Tony Romo. And while the Giants have certainly struggled in recent weeks - going 1-5 after a 5-0 start - the Cowboys will also be facing their own recent history.

Since 1996, the last year the Cowboys won a playoff game (going 2-1 in the regular season, 1-1 in the playoffs), the December/January regular-season record for Dallas has been nothing short of sickening. And when they have made the playoffs... eh.

YearHead
Coach
Dec./Jan.
Record
Reg. Season
Record
Playoffs?
1997
Barry Switzer
0-3
6-10
--
1998
Chan Gailey
2-2
10-6
L vs. Ariz
1999
Chan Gailey
2-3
8-8
L at Min
2000
Dave Campo
1-3
5-11
--
2001
Dave Campo
3-3
5-11
--
2002
Dave Campo
0-4
5-11
--
2003
Bill Parcells
2-2
10-6
L at Car
2004
Bill Parcells
2-3
6-10
--
2005
Bill Parcells
2-3
9-7
--
2006
Bill Parcells
2-3
9-7
L at Sea
2007
Wade Phillips
2-2
13-3
L vs NYG
2008
Wade Phillips
1-3
9-7
--

In 2005 and 2008, the Cowboys finished one game out of a playoff berth, with bad December beats that could have been the difference between a playoff appearance and an early end to football in North Texas.

For the Cowboys to make the playoffs in 2009, they need to win one of the follow final five games of the season:
Week 13@ New York Giants6-5
Week 14San Diego Chargers8-3
Week 15@ New Orleans Saints11-0
Week 16@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 17Philadelphia Eagles7-4

If Dallas can win two games, they could get to 10 wins on the season and almost certainly wrap up the NFC East. If I had to pick two games that the Cowboys have the best chances to win, I suppose it would be the home game against San Diego, and either game on the road against New York or Washington. However, none of these five games could be considered "locks" like the Cowboys' last game against Oakland.

If the Cowboys win just one game, they might, might, be able to limp into the playoffs, but that would most likely only extend a 1-4 finish to the season into another postseason disappointment.

NFC Playoff Picture
The road to Super Bowl XLIV begins in just six weeks, and only with three of the NFC divisions all but locked up, it seems that just five teams will be fighting for the final three spots, with one of those teams being the NFC East Champ. The Saints, Vikings and Cardinals have 5-, 3-, and 2-game leads in their respective divisions. The Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants are all still in contention for the NFC East crown, and Green Bay and Atlanta are still fighting for Wild Card attention.

The current NFC playoff picture:

1New Orleans Saints11-0NFC South
2Minnesota Vikings10-1NFC North
3Dallas Cowboys8-3NFC East
4Arizona Cardinals7-4NFC West
5Philadelphia Eagles7-4Wild Card
6Green Bay Packers7-4Wild Card
7New York Giants6-5on the bubble
8Atlanta Falcons6-5on the bubble
9San Francisco 49ers5-6on the bubble

The playoffs would open today with the Packers at Cowboys and Eagles at Cardinals. The Eagles lost in Arizona in last season's NFC Championship game, while the Packers clunked the Cowboys at Lambeau earlier this season.

Who gets home field advantage in the NFC?
The Saints and Vikings don't play each other this season, so each team needs to keep winning down to the final week if they want to lock up home field advantage. Both the Saints (7-0) and Vikings (8-0) are undefeated in the conference, and all remaining Saints games are in the conference, so if the Saints and Vikings finish with identical records, the Vikings would claim home field with a better conference record. Still a long way off, and the remaining platter schedule for the Saints isn't extremely taxing.

The Rest of the Way
Over the final five weeks of the season, the NFC dogfight will pit most of these playoff-bound teams against each other, providing plenty of head-to-head opportunities to edge out opponents for the six spots in the conference tournament. Winner gets the Colts. Every team except the Packers will play 2 or 3 games against this pool of 9 NFC teams for the postseason. Here's a breakdown of each team's remaining opponent's records:
(click team to jump to its remaining schedule)
New Orleans Saints (11-0)22-33.400
Minnesota Vikings (10-1)29-26.527
Dallas Cowboys (8-3)35-20.636
Arizona Cardinals (7-4)25-30.455
Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)32-23.582
Green Bay Packers (7-4)27-28.491
New York Giants (6-5)32-23.582
Atlanta Falcons (6-5)29-28.509
San Francisco 49ers (5-6)21-34.382

Remaining schedules for NFC playoff contenders:
1. New Orleans Saints

Week 13@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 14@ Atlanta Falcons6-5
Week 15Dallas Cowboys8-3
Week 16Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-10
Week 17@ Carolina Panthers4-7
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 22-33 (.400)

2. Minnesota Vikings
Week 13@ Arizona Cardinals7-4
Week 14Cincinnati Bengals8-3
Week 15@ Carolina Panthers4-7
Week 16@ Chicago Bears4-7
Week 17New York Giants6-5
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 29-26 (.527)

3. Dallas Cowboys
Week 13@ New York Giants6-5
Week 14San Diego Chargers8-3
Week 15@ New Orleans Saints11-0
Week 16@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 17Philadelphia Eagles7-4
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 35-20 (.636)

4. Arizona Cardinals
Week 13Minnesota Vikings10-1
Week 14@ San Francisco 49ers5-6
Week 15@ Detroit Lions2-9
Week 16St. Louis Rams1-10
Week 17Green Bay Packers7-4
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 25-30 (.455)

5. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 13@ Atlanta Falcons6-5
Week 14@ New York Giants6-5
Week 15San Francisco 49ers5-6
Week 16Denver Broncos7-4
Week 17@ Dallas Cowboys8-3
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 32-23 (.582)

6. Green Bay Packers
Week 13Baltimore Ravens6-5
Week 14@ Chicago Bears4-7
Week 15@ Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5
Week 16Seattle Seahawks4-7
Week 17@ Arizona Cardinals7-4
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 27-28 (.491)

7. New York Giants
Week 13Dallas Cowboys8-3
Week 14Philadelphia Eagles7-4
Week 15@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 16Carolina Panthers4-7
Week 17@ Minnesota Vikings10-1
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 32-23 (.582)

8. Atlanta Falcons
Week 13Philadelphia Eagles7-4
Week 14New Orleans Saints11-0
Week 15@ New York Jets6-6
Week 16Buffalo Bills4-8
Week 17@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-10
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 29-28 (.509)

9. San Francisco 49ers
Week 13@ Seattle Seahawks4-7
Week 14Arizona Cardinals7-4
Week 15@ Philadelphia Eagles 7-4
Week 16Detroit Lions2-9
Week 17@ St. Louis Rams1-10
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 21-34 (.382)

Plenty of meaningful football left for everyone in the NFC playoff picture. The first round byes in the NFC appear to be all but locked in, but with very little else decided, it truly should be a December to remember (or in the case of the team that ends up struggling this month, a December to forget).

Sunday, November 29, 2009

We run LA: USC 28, ucla 7

The Crosstown Rivalry.
The Battle for Los Angeles.
USC versus UCLA.

The 2009 edition of this rivalry seemed to be getting more hype as the potential changing of the guard game for football bragging rights in Los Angeles. If you read the LA Times before the game, you'd think UCLA could have rolled the Trojans in this one.

For Bruins and Trojans, it's all about LA

One team is surging, the other trying to regain its balance after embarrassing losses and weeks of public flogging.

But for the first time in years the roles are reversed.

When USC and UCLA play for the 79th time tonight at the Coliseum, Coach Pete Carroll and his recently staggering Trojans will try to hold off a Bruins team eager to show that the school's infamous "monopoly" marketing campaign was no joke.


UCLA-USC prediction:

Too close to call (almost)

And yet, after the Trojans suffered two of the worst losses in the program's history in the last three games against Oregon and Stanford, and the Bruins came in winners of three straight, it was the Trojans who looked to have the hot hand while the Bruins stumble around for 60 minutes.

+ Turnovers
The game was seemingly a pretty even affair with the exception of four Trojans takeaways to stifle several UCLA scoring chances. USC picked off Bruin quarterbacks three times and recovered one fumble, with two of the picks coming after UCLA had driven more than 30 yards on the drive. And that's really where the game was won for 'SC as three of the four turnovers led to scoring chances for 'SC.

Interception #1
The Trojans' Malcolm Smith returned a Kevin Prince interception for a 62-yard touchdown to open the scoring, 7-0 Trojans, in the first quarter. When the Trojans have been winning this season, they have been doing it with defense. The Trojans set an early precedent against the Bruins that they would be aggressive while UCLA's offense was at work.

Fumble
UCLA took over after a Trojans punt late in the first half with delusions of grandeur ideas of getting on the board by halftime. They used defensive pass interference to get near midfield, and completed a pass for 14 yards. The next pass play, from Kevin Prince to Nelson Rosario went for 12 yards before Josh Pinkard recovered Rosario's fumble, halting the Bruins' chances. Instead, USC was able to drive 37 yards in five plays to set up a 50-yard field goal attempt. While the try fell short, USC's hurry-up offense proved potent, with quarterback Matt Barkley able to connect on a few out routes, and the receivers were able to get out of bounds to stop the clock.

Interception #2
The Trojans were forced to punt early in the third quarter, giving the Bruins the ball on their own 24 yard line. The Bruins ran the ball for two yards before Prince threw his second interception, this time to Will Harris, who gave the Trojans offense the ball deep in Bruins territory. It took USC seven plays to move 29 yards for the Allen Bradford 1-yard touchdown run, giving the Trojans 14 points off turnovers.

Interception #3
UCLA again forced a Trojans punt, with the Bruins taking over on their own 22. After driving across midfield to the Trojans' 47-yard line, quarterback Kevin Craft - who replaced Prince after he was knocked out of the game - floated a ball to Pinkard, who picked the pass at the 20 yard line to halt a potential Bruins scoring drive. The Trojans couldn't muster any offense on the ensuing possession and gave up the ball on a three-and-out, the fourth three-and-out for USC in the game.

Any time you win the turnover battle, 4-1, it's very difficult not to win the game. The Trojans defense set the table, and the offense finished dinner by converting turnovers into points.

+ USC Offense
The Trojans offense, for years though of as a big-play machine that cranked up 60-yard runs an 75-yard bombs directly to the end zone, didn't propel that seemingly now outdated stereotype. In fact, until the final five minutes of the game, the Trojans offense didn't have a drive of more than 37 yards in the entire game, and that drive led to the missed field goal at the end of the first half.

USC punted eight times on Saturday night. None of the Trojans drives lasted more than nine plays. The offense didn't get into the end zone until midway through the third quarter, and yet USC still seemed to be in control the entire time. The average drive moved just 20.1 yards (and only 13.8 yards per drive until the final two drives moved a combined 120 yards).

Matt Barkley was average at best for most of the game. There were times he tried to force balls, which he was able to complete on occasion. Other times he either missed or ignored an open man down field for an underneath target. I doubt he is not confident in going for the home run, however, he did pass up several chances to swing for the fences. Having said that (thank you Curb), he was able to work the short game to help move the chains. Of his 206 passing yards, 91 of them came in the fourth quarter, which is either a good thing that he was able to produce when it mattered most, or a scary reality that he was only able to amass just 115 yards through three quarters. Take your pick. Is the glass half full or half empty?

It just wasn't that great a game for the offense, but thanks to adding on some extra points in the final frame, the numbers didn't look too bleak.

+ The Controversy?
Did you hear about the "big controversy" with this year's USC-UCLA game? I know I didn't. I got a phone call today from a friend asking what I thought about last night's controversy. I was shocked. What controversy? What did I miss from Row 82 at the Coliseum?

The controversy in question refers to the Trojans touchdown strike after UCLA's called timeout when USC was trying to kneel down to kill the rest of the clock. I didn't realize this was such a big deal for a team to keep playing after being challenged to do so. Consider this:

The Bruins got the ball after a Trojans' touchdown, putting USC up 21-7 with 1:30 left in the game. After a 19-yard pass play to get near midfield, Craft threw four incomplete passes, turning the ball over on downs. Throwing four times with 1:30 left in the game and trailing by 14 says that the trailing team - UCLA - is still trying to get points on the board and keep this game competitive. If they can add on a touchdown to pull within seven, they can look back and say, "See, we only lost that game by 7. It was a close game. We're narrowing the gap between these two programs." In reality, adding that touchdown could do a lot for UCLA, and they were right to go for it. Instead, they didn't get it. They turned the ball over on downs, and USC took over on the UCLA 47 with 0:54 seconds remaining.

The Trojans walked out to the 47, broke the huddle in the victory formation, and took a knee to begin the process of running out the clock. The whistles blew, and the clock stopped at 0:52. UCLA had called a timeout. No problem here. UCLA is essentially saying that they aren't done playing. They have timeouts left, and if USC wants to run down the clock, they are going to have to run the ball, thus creating a greater possibility of a fumble or any sort of turnover, than the "safe play" of taking a knee. UCLA wanted a chance to get the ball back for that extra score, so they called timeout.

Having said that, if UCLA called timeout, presumably because they still wanted to play, to score, and to leave their mark on this game, then the Trojans should have every right to do the same. UCLA expected USC to continue to try to run out the clock, a process made easy by handing the ball off to a running back and having him stay in bounds. Instead, USC play-faked the run, and Barkley aired it out to a wide open Damian Williams for a 48-yard touchdown strike. 28-7 USC.

After that play and the ensuing extra point, the sidelines cleared in a stand off that saw a referee thrown to the ground by someone from UCLA. It was a good play call because UCLA was expecting run, and the Trojans faked the run to add their extra touchdown. Why should they add the extra touchdown? Well, if the results of this game have such a big implication on recruiting, then the Trojans should want to add an extra score to entice recruits to "join a winner" if they plan on playing big-time football in Southern California.

It's not running up the score. It's not poor sportsmanship. It's nothing more than a competitive game between two rivals. One was ready to head to the locker room with a 21-7 victory, so Pete Carroll ordered the troops to take a knee. UCLA wanted the ball back, so the Trojans gave it to 'em -- by kicking off after an extra touchdown to sweeten the win.

+ USC Defense
The USC defense regained some swagger with a 7-point stunting of UCLA's offense. It doesn't negate the 55 points given up to Stanford in the previous game two weeks earlier at the Coliseum, but it certainly helps take some of the sting away. The Trojans defense was able to disrupt the Bruins passing game, limiting quarterbacks Kevin Craft and Kevin Prince to a combined 18-of-39 for 188 yards and three interceptions. The Bruins running game, well their traditional running game, was held to 60 yards. They were able to more than double their ground game total by using designed quarterback draws and other QB scrambles to tack on 74 yards against 'SC. That was really the only thing UCLA was able to do that USC couldn't control, but when the QBs had to make plays with their arms instead of their feet, the Bruins came up empty-handed.

The four-turnover performance tied the 2009 season-high for USC's defense, equalling the mark against Arizona State three weeks earlier. It was evidence that the Pete Carroll defense that has become so potent and feared since 2001 still has the potential to take over a game, and that the efforts seen against Stanford and Oregon are more aberration than atrophy.

+ Punting aplenty
With one game left in 2009, the Trojans have punted 53 times, averagin 4.8 (so, five) punts per game. That seems like a lot more than in years past. Looking at the numbers, the Trojans in the Pete Carroll era (since 2001) have done a good job of not giving up the ball in past seasons, as this year's 4.8 punts per game could wind up being the highest since before the back-to-back National Championships.

YearPuntsPunts Per Game
2009534.8
2008473.6
2007634.8
2006493.8
2005332.5
2004513.9
2003443.4
2002655.0
2001796.6


Here's the breakdown of USC's punting in 2009 by game:

vs. UCLA

USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman836345.41154
Team836345.41154

vs. Stanford
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman310535.00037
Team310535.00037

at Arizona State
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman829737.11151
Team829737.11151

at Oregon
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman623238.70048
Team623238.70048

vs. Oregon State
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman313244.00047
Team313244.00047

at Notre Dame
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman415338.30159
Team415338.30159

at California
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman312040.00047
Team312040.00047

vs. Washington State
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
J. Harfman313946.30251
Team313946.30251

at Washington
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
B. O'Malley416441.00053
Team416441.00053

at Ohio State
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
B. O'Malley518837.61041
Team518837.61041

vs. San Jose State
USC Punting
TOTYDSAVGTB-20LG
B. O'Malley620834.70345
Team620834.70345

The Trojans may not be going to the Rose Bowl, and the string of consecutive Pac-10 championships will officially end next week, however USC still is the big dog in Los Angeles. I leave you now with this image of Rick Neuheisel declaring the LA football monopoly officially over (two years ago). How's that going?

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