Here's a look at the current standings in the AFC:
| 1 | Indianapolis - * | 14-0 |
| 2 | San Diego - z | 11-3 |
| 3 | New England | 9-5 |
| 4 | Cincinnati | 9-5 |
| 5 | Baltimore | 8-6 |
| 6 | Denver | 8-6 |
| 7 | Jacksonville | 7-7 |
| 8 | Miami | 7-7 |
| 9 | N.Y. Jets | 7-7 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | 7-7 |
| 11 | Tennessee | 7-7 |
| 12 | Houston | 7-7 |
Lots of teams still alive in the playoff hunt with half a dozen teams at 7-7. Obviously next week's games will go a long way to eliminate a chunk of the field, but for now everyone still has a chance. So with everyone still mathematically alive, here's an idea of why certain teams Jacksonville are #7 while others like Tennessee and Houston would need even more help. We'll keep Indianapolis out of all our analysis as they are already locked into the #1 seed. There are 11 other teams however still jockeying for position.
Tiebreakers in the NFL are as follows for the wild card berths:
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
For this exercise, we ignore the head-to-head step as it takes a simple glance at the regular season to solve. We're digging deeper. First, the best W-L-T percentage in the conference. Whoever has the best conference record gets the higher seed. For example, while the Ravens have a head-to-head win over the Broncos this year (tiebreaker #1), had those teams not played, the Ravens would still have the #5 seed to the Broncos #6 because of a better record in AFC games.
| Team | SD | NE | CIN | BAL | JAC | DEN | MIA | NYJ | PIT | HOU | TEN |
| AFC W-L-T | 8-3 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 6-5 | 5-5 | 5-5 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Win % | .727 | .600 | .600 | .600 | .600 | .545 | .500 | .500 | .400 | .400 | .364 |
| Rank | 1 | T-2 | T-2 | T-2 | T-2 | 6 | T-7 | T-7 | T-9 | T-9 | 11 |
So based on conference records, right now San Diego can clinch a first-round bye with one more conference win or one more New England conference loss. Likewise, while the Broncos currently hold a playoff berth, if they end up tied with Jacksonville by the end of the season, the Jags have a better conference record which could help them leapfrog the Broncos for the #6 seed.
The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.
Strength of Victory
This tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.
This week: As teams win, they have their strength of victory levels updated. If a team loses, their strength of victory does not change, however they do drop in the overall W-L-T standings, so it does hurt. The point of this tiebreaker: if you're going to win, you better win against great teams and lose a rare game against a weakling. You better believe if the Dallas Cowboys get to this tiebreaker in the NFC, their win over the Saints will go a long way in boosting their ranking in this tiebreaker. Here's a look at AFC strength of victory numbers:
| Team | PIT (7-7) | DEN (8-6) | SD (11-3) | MIA (7-7) | NE (9-5) | TEN (7-7) | NYJ (7-7) | CIN (9-5) | HOU (7-7) | JAC (7-7) | BAL (8-6) |
| Beaten Teams | TEN SD DET CLE MIN DEN GB | CIN CLE OAK DAL NE SD NYG KC | OAK MIA KC OAK NYG PHI DEN KC CLE DAL CIN | BUF NYJ NYJ TB CAR NE JAC | BUF ATL BAL TEN TB MIA NYJ CAR BUF | JAC SF BUF HOU ARI STL MIA | HOU NE TEN OAK CAR BUF TB | GB PIT CLE BAL CHI BAL PIT CLE DET | TEN OAK CIN SF BUF SEA STL | HOU TEN STL KC NYJ BUF HOU | KC SD CLE DEN CLE PIT DET CHI |
| Beaten Teams' Record | 51-47 | 57-55 | 70-84 | 43-55 | 54-72 | 42-56 | 41-57 | 52-74 | 38-60 | 37-61 | 42-70 |
| % | .520 | .509 | .455 | .439 | .429 | .429 | .418 | .413 | .388 | .378 | .375 |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T-5 | T-5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
The Steelers have the best Strength of Victory ranking, but they would have to drastically raise their conference record by the end of the season or else it won't matter much. Denver has beaten some strong teams but their 6-5 conference record could be a problem if they falter in the final two weeks. With a game coming up against the Eagles, if they lose, it won't hurt their conference ranking, and Strength of Victory won't be affected because they won't have won a game. However, having a strong team like the Eagles now on their schedule will increase their Strength of Schedule, the next stop on our journey...
Strength of Schedule
This is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.
The AFC Strength of Schedule:
| Team | MIA (7-7) | TEN (7-7) | DEN (8-6) | NE (9-5) | BAL (8-6) | HOU (7-7) | JAC (7-7) | NYJ (7-7) | CIN (9-5) | SD (11-3) | PIT (7-7) |
| Teams Played in '09 Losses in Italics | BUF NYJ NYJ TB CAR NE JAC ATL IND SD NO NE BUF TEN | JAC SF BUF HOU ARI STL MIA PIT HOU NYJ JAC IND NE IND | CIN CLE OAK DAL NE SD NYG KC BAL PIT WAS SD IND OAK | BUF ATL BAL TEN TB MIA NYJ CAR BUF NYJ DEN IND NO MIA | KC SD CLE DEN CLE PIT DET CHI NE CIN MIN CIN IND GB | TEN OAK CIN SF BUF SEA STL NYJ JAC ARI IND TEN IND JAC | HOU TEN STL KC NYJ BUF HOU IND ARI SEA TEN SF MIA IND | HOU NE TEN OAK CAR BUF TB NO MIA BUF MIA JAC NE ATL | GB PIT CLE BAL CHI BAL PIT CLE DET DEN HOU OAK MIN SD | OAK MIA KC OAK NYG PHI DEN KC CLE DAL CIN BAL PIT DEN | TEN SD DET CLE MIN DEN GB CHI CIN CIN KC BAL OAK CLE |
| Opp. Record | 109-87 | 107-89 | 106-90 | 103-93 | 103-93 | 103-93 | 99-97 | 96-100 | 94-102 | 93-103 | 93-103 |
| % | .556 | .546 | .541 | .526 | .526 | .526 | .505 | .490 | .480 | .474 | .474 |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | T-4 | T-4 | T-4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T-10 | T-10 |
Notice how the Steelers, ranked #1 in Strength of Victory, are at the back of the pack in Strength of Schedule. It's never a good thing to be so far back in any tiebreaker, especially in such a tight race, but the fact that they've lost to such poor teams is actually helping their strength of victory. As a result, the winning percentage of teams they have beaten isn't weighted down by the likes of the Chiefs of Browns or Raiders. Having said that, I'm sure they'd rather have the extra three wins, be 10-4 instead of 7-7, and currently hold a playoff spot instead of worrying about tiebreakers. Interesting how that works out.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
I know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.
This is where things start getting technical. I've only seen this tiebreaker even talked of once before, in 1999 when the Panthers and Packers were each airing the ball out in Week 17 to have a better ranking. Frankly, it was going to come down to Net Points in Conference (a couple of tiebreakers later), but depending how many points they each put up that week, the results for who could have made the playoffs may have been altered at this tiebreaker as well.
| Team | NE | BAL | SD | NYJ | CIN | HOU | PIT | DEN | MIA | TEN | JAC |
| Offensive Points Allowed | 365 | 350 | 389 | 282 | 288 | 327 | 315 | 275 | 316 | 320 | 266 |
| AFC Rank | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 244 | 225 | 283 | 221 | 244 | 286 | 280 | 250 | 333 | 347 | 322 |
| AFC Rank | T-3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | T-3 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Combined Ranking | 6 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 23 |
| Who comes out ahead | T-1 | T-1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
As you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.
Best net points in conference games.
We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).
| Team | SD | NE | BAL | NYJ | PIT | HOU | JAC | CIN | DEN | MIA | TEN |
| Points Scored vs. AFC | 317 | 267 | 226 | 222 | 209 | 232 | 223 | 179 | 215 | 226 | 219 |
| Points Allowed vs. AFC | 223 | 179 | 155 | 178 | 190 | 217 | 210 | 167 | 207 | 228 | 296 |
| Net | +94 | +88 | +71 | +68 | 19 | +15 | +13 | +12 | +8 | -2 | -77 |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Best net points in all games.
It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* NFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against NFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.
| Team | BAL | NE | SD | NYJ | CIN | HOU | PIT | DEN | MIA | TEN | JAC |
| Points Scored vs. NFL | 350 | 365 | 389 | 282 | 288 | 327 | 315 | 272 | 316 | 320 | 266 |
| Points Allowed vs. NFL | 225 | 244 | 283 | 221 | 244 | 286 | 280 | 250 | 333 | 347 | 322 |
| Net | +125 | +121 | +106 | +61 | +44 | +41 | +35 | +25 | -17 | -27 | -56 |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Best net touchdowns in all games.
This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.
Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head, 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about.
| Team | BAL | NE | SD | NYJ | CIN | PIT | HOU | DEN | MIA | JAC | TEN |
| Total TDs Scored | 42 | 42 | 43 | 30 | 32 | 36 | 38 | 28 | 36 | 31 | 35 |
| Total TDs Allowed | 24 | 29 | 31 | 24 | 27 | 32 | 34 | 26 | 36 | 37 | 41 |
| Net | +18 | +13 | +12 | +6 | +5 | +4 | +4 | +2 | 0 | -6 | -6 |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T-6 | T-6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
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