Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Friday, December 16, 2011

In defense of Tony Romo

A couple friends over at the Stubborn OXen sports blog asked for my two cents today on Tony Romo: franchise quarterback or franchise disappointment. Here is how the dialog started followed by my response:

Austen: The more I watch Tony Romo, the more I am confused by what he actually has to offer the Cowboys. I have long been a defender of him, despite hating the Cowboys and the entire state of Texas. However, this season is making me reconsider what I think about this guy. I feel like he has lost more games for the Boys this season than he has won.

Is Romo a top 10 quarterback? Does he have what it takes to get this team to a Super Bowl? Is he simply a good quarterback who just falters under pressure? What do you make of Romo?

Romo. Franchise quarterback or franchise disappointer?

Stally: Before we get going with this question, let me introduce Josh Feldman. Josh writes one of the few blogs we follow, No Joshin'. He's a sports broadcaster and a lifelong Cowboys fan, so he should be able to provide some good perspective on what's going on in Dallas. Now, to my answer...

Tony Romo's a franchise quarterback in my mind. I'm glad he's not running my team, but I have Tom Brady. Thank goodness I'm not, but if I were a Jets fan and given the option of Romo or Mark Sanchez, I'd take Romo without putting much thought into it.

Romo's a playmaker that finds a way to distribute the ball to all the different weapons he has. Sure, he's got some solid targets out there in Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, but where would guys like Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson be with a league average QB (like Sanchez)? Probably muddling around as slot receivers like Brandon Stokley after he left the Colts (kinda like the Jets' Jeremy Kerley).

The biggest issue is that Romo lacks confidence late in games. This is a mental issue, and something that's capable of being overcome. It's not a question of talent and it's not something that affects his whole game (like being soft, in Blaine Gabbert's case, for instance). He (and the Cowboys) remind me of my pre-2004 Red Sox. They'd always give me hope that they'd win the big games, but, deep down, I always feared they'd lose it and those fears were usually realized in heartbreaking fashion. But, as the Red Sox have proven, that didn't mean they weren't capable of one day figuring it out.

Tony Romo is basically the anti-Tim Tebow. He plays well for 55 minutes and then has some sort of mental block late that usually results in a stupid decision. The difference between the two is that Romo is legitimately a very talented quarterback and he shows plenty of intelligence and poise for much of the game. If Romo overcomes whatever mental issue he has that hinders him late in games, there's no reason why he and the Cowboys can't be one of the best teams in the league and contend for a Super Bowl. Not only this year, but in the next several.

Austen: Ever since I started watching Romo, I have compared him to Brett Favre because of his gunslinger mentality, and I think that still holds true today. He tends to throw balls into tight coverage often and makes throws while he is being hit or falling down, trusting in his athletic ability maybe a little too much. Like Favre, he is desperate to make a play, yet they do this for very different reasons.

Favre always wanted to make a play because he wanted to be a hero. It was his ego that drove him to try to attempt the impossible because the payoff for him was the glory of making a spectacular play. In Romo's case, it seems to be having to do with his own confidence problems, which leads him to try to make a play in order to prove himself to the media and the Cowboys' fans. Romo just needs to settle into his role as a starting quarterback and find some sort of confidence from all the talent he has.

His main issue as a quarterback is his leadership skills. His inferiority complex clearly effects his ability to lead others and that is why the Cowboys as a team seem to always fall short. Obviously a lot of that falls on the quarterback, but this is a team problem and not a Romo problem.

Had Dan Bailey made that field goal against the Giants, which was set up by Romo driving right down the field with 30 seconds left on the clock, Romo would have looked like a hero. Instead, everyone gets to nitpick possibly his only bad pass of the game when he overthrew a wide open Miles Austin on third down. Considering Austin has missed the majority of this season, is still not playing at 100%, and now claims that he lost the ball in the lights causing him to slow down, I'll give Romo a pass for a game in which he threw four touchdowns and had to overcome the loss of their star rookie running back.

The Cowboys defense has been awful this year and has put a ton of pressure on Romo. The Cowboys simply cannot win games when they give up so many big plays on broken coverage, which allowed the Giants to score two touchdowns in about three minutes.

If Romo just finds a way to be confident in his skills and to steps up into a leadership role on this team, the Cowboys could be scary good once they sort out their defensive backfield.

Oh my, where to begin...

First, let's start with what I believe is the question at hand -- is Romo a top 10 quarterback/franchise quarterback? -- before refuting and clarifying some of the beliefs, misinformation and fallacies about Tony Romo.

Is Tony Romo a top 10 quarterback? The easiest way to answer this is by simply going through the Cowboys schedule one week at a time and with each match up determining which quarterback you'd like on your team. It's an easy proposition for teams with Aaron Rogers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees (Super Bowl winning quarterbacks), but with a controversial QB like Tony Romo whose dynamic comebacks and clutch performances are only surpassed by the glorification of his failures.

The other quarterbacks on the Cowboys include Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith, John Beck, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady, Sam Bradford, Michael Vick, Tavaris Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Moore, John Skelton (Kevin Kolb was injured), Eli Manning, and Josh Freeman. Only Tom Brady and Eli Manning are legitimate quarterbacks to argue having over Romo. In fact, other than teams with the obvious franchise quarterback, someone who already has hardware in the trophy case, tell me another quarterback you'd want instead of Dallas' #9?

Those fringe franchise quarterbacks include Philips Rivers (who appears to be on a mission to get Norv Turner fired based on his play), Jay Cutler (who was nearly run out of Chicago after last year's NFC Championship game), and Michael Vick (who is about as healthy as one of his dogs). Tony Romo has shown more consistency over the last five seasons than all of those quarterbacks. By a long shot.

There are other quarterbacks like Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez. Their teams win, but arguably in spite of their quarterbacks, not because of them.

How importantly is a quarterback? Just ask the winless Colts.

Is Tony Romo a franchise quarterback? Absolutely. If he played for a franchise like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions or Arizona Cardinals -- teams that really haven't had a franchise quarterback in the last 50 years or ever -- Romo would be the greatest QB any of those teams could ever hope for. But Romo is cursed with the same thing Troy Aikman had to deal with: following a legend in Dallas. Never mind that Aikman didn't come to Dallas until '89 and Roger Staubach retired almost a decade earlier. There was a six-year gap between Aikman and Romo too, but in Dallas, it's all about the Super Bowl winning QB, and until you bring home the thing, you'll forever play in the shadows of those who did, fairly or not. That is what Tony Romo is up against.

Is he a franchise quarterback? Yes. Has he lived up to the ridiculously high Dallas Cowboys fans' definition of a franchise quarterback? No, and no one will until the Lombardi Trophy returns to Dallas.

If anything, Romo gets better as the game goes on. There have certainly been exceptions this season, but take a look at those "exceptions" more closely, and you'll find that over his career and even in 2011, Romo has been plenty good in the 4th quarter.

If you had to name the top five 4th quarter quarterbacks in the NFL so far this season, who you put Tony Romo in that group?

If not, you'd be wrong. Tony Romo has posted a 103.9 rating in the 4th quarter this season, and based on the stats compiled by the Washington Post, only trailing Eli Manning, Aaron Rogers, Tim Tebow and the (always throwing because they're behind before he was hurt) Jason Campbell. See for yourself...


Frankly, this notion that Romo has a confidence issue -- a notion that y'all continue to perpetuate without basis -- sounds more like something out of a Cialis commercial than an NFL locker room. Where does this even come from? Austen, you made the point you feel like Romo "has lost more games" than he has won. Stally, you claim Romo is the anti-Tebow, turning back into a pumpkin during the final five minutes of the game. Both assertions need to be addressed.

Romo In The Clutch: This issue has been so overblown, I feel we need to start much farther back than this year (I promise, we won't go snap by snap, but you almost have to in order to make people see the light on this guy. Why he's such a lightning rod, I guess that has to do with the star on his helmet and the position he plays, but look at where he came from and what he accomplished.

An undrafted rookie free agent, Romo only made the Cowboys roster in 2004 after starting QB Quincy Carter was released after a positive drug test, severing the franchise's ties with the man who the team invested a second round draft pick in and who led them to the playoffs the previous year before losing to eventual NFC champion Carolina. Romo watched Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson and Drew Bledsoe lead the Cowboys pretty much nowhere before taking the reigns six games into the 2006 season and leading Dallas to a wild card berth. If not for the botched hold by Romo, he would have led the Cowboys in an upset over the defending Super Bowl champions on the road. Keep in mind, the only reason it had been such a chip shot field goal is because Romo had led Dallas down the field to put them in position to win. As I wrote in 2006:

This year, Romo proved that he has what it takes to be the quarterback in Dallas. Without him, the 'Boys may not have even made the playoffs. Making the Pro Bowl was no fluke; the final five games of the season were.

The Bobble will not be as catastrophic as "The Catch," which not only launched a dynasty but crumbled another at once. Instead, it will most likely be looked back at as Romo's humble beginnings after a career of success.


A gaffe like that could have buried the undrafted rookie free agent now at the helm of America's Team. How was he supposed to come back from that? Parcells left following the season, and Romo managed to "pick up the pieces" en route to a 13-3 season in 2007. The record alone is impressive for a season-year starter (technically, his first full season, but really, it was Year #2 for Romo).

The fingerprints for Romo's comeback abilities trace to this season on a Monday night in Buffalo. Dallas trailed the Bills by 24-22 after a failed 2-point conversion with :20 to play in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind, Romo had already led Dallas on what could have been a game-tying drive in the 2-minute drill that would have forced overtime had T.O. not dropped the 2-point try. The Cowboys recovered an onside kick, and Romo completed two quick passes to set up a 53-yard field goal by Nick Folk. In fact, the only loss Dallas suffered that season prior to December came at the hands of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. (By the way, Stally, beating the Giants in the playoffs that year -- and Dallas would fail to do -- was not as easy as it seemed, would you agree?)

Romo had another great comeback in 2008 in Arizona, only no one remembers the game for anything other than the blocked punt that ended it. The Cowboys trailed the Cardinals by 10 points with two minutes left in the game before Romo led a pair of scoring drives to tie the game and force overtime. On the first play from scrimmage in overtime, Romo was hit awkwardly and broke his finger. Three plays later, the game was over. To any Romo detractors, I ask you this: how did Dallas fair without Romo that season? It wasn't pretty. There was a loss to the St. Louis Rams mixed in there -- and they were worse then than they are now!

There are other examples of Romo's clutch performances leading up to this season (leading a game-winning drive at Washington in 2008, Miles Austin's breakout game at Kansas City in 2009 (someone was throwing the ball), comebacks against Philadelphia and Washington in 2009, plus ruining the Saints perfect season that same year). In an injury-shortened 2010 season, Romo had Dallas on the brink of another comeback win if not for Alex Barron's holding penalty on the final play of the season opener in Washington. Obviously, there are games during the last five years where Romo has faltered, but the point is he does have a healthy pattern of success as well.

Romo This Season: In the season-opening loss to the Jets, Romo did throw a poor interception, but his other 4th quarter turnover -- a fumble while diving for the goal line is exactly the type of play that demonstrates why a Cowboys quarterback is playing against a stacked deck when it comes to the judgment he'll receive. If he'd slid feet first inside the five yard line, everyone would challenge his heart for not pushing toward the end zone. His criticism in this game was results-based. The interception was bad, absolutely, but the fumble would be like criticizing John Elway had he fumbled on his helicopter run during Super Bowl XXXII.

The very next week in San Francisco -- keep in mind this wrapped up a grueling four-week travel schedule that included games in Miami, Minnesota, New York and now San Francisco (in other words, all edges of the country) -- Romo overcame some terrible play-calling (the Miles Austin run) and led the Cowboys on a game tying drive before connecting with Jesse Holley in overtime for a long pass play to set up the game-winning field goal.

He did throw three second half picks against Detroit. How Bobby Carpenter returned one for a touchdown, it must have been Romo's present to a member of his wedding party. In that game, however, the Cowboys had not yet stumbled upon what they had in DeMarco Murray. It's easy to look back and say "they should have run the ball" but until that point, Murray hadn't had his breakout game against the Rams, and Felix Jones was running timid.

In fact, Romo has led potential game-winning or game-tying drives in each of the Cowboys last four games, seeing his efforts come to fruition against Washington and Miami with successful Dan Bailey field goals and watching the Cowboys crumble after Jason Garrett's timeout and Jason Pierre-Paul's block against the Cardinals and Giants. To say he hasn't gotten it done in the fourth quarter is to only look at the final score, not at how the Cowboys arrived there.

His leadership skills aren't a problem. This "confidence" question is unfounded.

Austen, your point about the Cowboys problems being team problems is spot on. Check the defense and special teams in some of the Cowboys losses. Dallas has lost six games, and the first two (New York Jets and Detroit) can be put squarely on Romo's shoulders. However the losses in New England, Arizona and at home to New York could have all resulted in wins with better 4th quarter play from the defense and special teams (the loss to Philadelphia was a blowout, so a lot would have had to work out differently).

Tony Romo offers the Cowboys a chance to win more often than "any given Sunday." Romo is the reason the Cowboys are a favorite most weekends. And unless you have a team with a quarterback who already has hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, you don't have a quarterback better than him.

Saturday, January 08, 2011

NFL Playoffs

January has arrived and with it the return of playoff football. The weekend's festivities kick off with the defending champion New Orleans Saints in Seattle to take on a team that Ohio State's president might describe as the Little Sisters of the Poor in terms of NFL playoff teams.

The Seahawks went 7-9 in the regular season. The Saints 12-4. And yes the game is in the Pacific Northwest because Seattle won the NFC West while New Orleans finishes second in their division. In fact, Seattle finished behind a few other teams that did not make the playoffs, such as Tampa Bay and the New York Giants. And while fans in those markets may cry foul, I am staunchly in favor of keeping things as is.

Radicals might want to abolish division and even the conferences and just take the league's top 12 teams, but that would be a mistake. Not only does winning your division need to mean something, but scrambling the NFL's playoff format is not the right answer. There is no need to try to fix a system that isn't as broken as people are making it out to be. This isn't the BCS.

Another new wrinkle to the NFL playoffs this year are the adjusted overtime rules. In the past a team could receive the opening kickoff of overtime, make 2-3 first downs, and kick a long field goal to win while the other team never sniffs the ball. Now the league has adopted rules that say a team must score a TD to end overtime within the first two possessions essentially. So if a team kicks a field goal on the first possession, the other team can kick a FG to force the start of "sudden death" or can score a TD for the victory.

The purpose of this is to make sure a coin toss doesn't determine the overtime winners, but if you looks at the evidence of overtime playoff games in the past, the percentage of teams who lose and never touch the ball are not overwhelming. However the NFL is trying to give each team a chance to touch the ball regardless of what past stats indicate. And in the playoffs, unlike the regular season, the constraints of jamming a game into a hard 3-hour block aren't as demanding.

Regardless, it should be a great NFL postseason. Frankly, I don't think Seattle will win, as much as I'd like them to, but they will play a much closer game with New Orleans than people are expecting. Granted, I haven't been much of a fan of seeing playoff games in Seattle (not since that dropped field goal by Tony Romo ended the Bill Parcells tensure in Dallas ... now I'm sad).

Friday, December 31, 2010

NFL playoff format & the NFC West

With the NFL playoffs less than two weeks away and only a few playoffs spots truly up for grabs in Week 17, it seems that the debate over which teams should get it has reignited, mainly as a result of this week's Sunday Night Football match up featuring two sub-.500 teams with a home playoff game on the line.

The 2010 edition of the NFC West division may not be the home to the year's best football, but it has shaped up to be the most competitive division this season, with three teams all in the hunt for the division crown until the 49ers loss in Week 16. Granted, that doesn't mean any of these teams are playing great football -- or even "winning football" for that matter -- but that's no reason to lobby for playoff restructuring or even division restructuring.

First of all, for those who say the NFC West is watered down and doesn't provide strong competition to the rest of the NFL, even if their junior varsity skill level does translate throughout the four teams in the division, this is clearly an aberration and not the norm. In the NFL over the last ten years, only two divisions have sent three different teams to a Super Bowl. One of them in the NFC South ('02 Buccaneers, '03 Panthers, '09 Saints) and the other is the NFC West ('01 Rams, '05 Seahawks, '08 Cardinals). So not only have three of the teams in the NFC West been to a Super Bowl recently, but the fourth team in that division is once-mighty San Francisco which, despite a rough patch in recent years, is one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. The potential for strong competition exists in that division, so please don't think blowing it up is the right call.

Furthermore, if you win your division, you should get a home playoff game. Period.

If the Falcons end up 13-3 and win the NFC South this season while the Saints finish 12-4, then you know what, the Saints should have beaten Atlanta when they had the chance at home in New Orleans back in September. The Saints and Falcons have 12 common opponents this season plus two head-to-head games. NFL schedules are set up to provide an equal challenge among division teams. Whichever team handles that schedule the best wins the division and should be properly rewarded by hosting a playoff game.

Wasn't it just two years ago we were having this same debate about how good a 9-7 NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals team really was, and they went all the way to the Super Bowl. If you're good enough to win you're division, you belong in the playoffs. Teams in other divisions might have not had to face as challenging a schedule as teams from another division.

The NFL playoffs are set up just fine. And if a 7-9 Seattle ends up hosting a 12-4 New Orleans Saints, then they better pack warm clothes. If 8-8 St. Louis hosts a team with a better record in the first round, they earned that right. It's not something that can be altered based on one or two fluky seasons.

UNC, Tennessee & the 10-second runoff that wasn't

Thanks to the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl pitting North Carolina against Tennessee, an entire nation of football fans and passers by wake up to something that - for most of them at least - is a new concept: a 10-second runoff. Diehards who know "all the rules" may still be a bit confused by this concept, but that's what this blog is here for.

Admittedly, my own knowledge of when 10-second runoffs are applied was taken to task on Christmas night in the Cowboys-Cardinals game [How the Cards stole Christmas] when Arizona's game-winning drive would have been thwarted by draining the remaining 10 seconds from the clock after an illegal formation penalty. The Cardinals right tackle was uncovered on the line of scrimmage, but instead of a 10-second runoff and thus a Cowboys win, instead the Cardinals were merely penalized five yards and allowed to kick the game-winning field goal. Bah humbug.

As far as penalties go late in the game, it's widely known that "a game cannot end on a defensive penalty" at really any level of football. Offensively, however, it's a little more complicated. In fact, plenty of games end on offensive penalties -- just ask Cowboys backup tackle Alex Barron after his holding penalty cost Dallas a Week 1 win at Washington. I always knew that if the clock is running inside the two-minute warning, and a player gets injured in a tie game (or the players of the injured team is losing, presumably on offense), and that team does not have any more timeouts, 10 seconds are run off the clock (see NFL rule). This is to prevent players from faking injuries to stop the clock and give a team an unfair advantage in driving for the last-second score.

The 10-second runoff due to an injured player on a team lacking timeouts might even be common knowledge, albeit a rare occurrence in the NFL today. However it can also be applied on some offensive procedural penalties. I say some because I used to think it was all until the Christmas night Cowboys/Cardinals game corrected my beliefs. To clarify, an offensive procedural penalty is something like a false start, two men in motion at the same time and not getting set, motion toward the line of scrimmage, too many men or not enough men on the line of scrimmage resulting in illegal formation. So prior to the Cowboys loss in the desert, I would have thought that any of these sort of penalties would result in a 10-second runoff if an offense was without a timeout, tied or trailing under two minutes in a half, to prevent the offensive from stopping the clock and absorbing a 5-yard hiccup of a penalty all to preserve time. It is for that reason exactly why when the Cardinals were able to spike the ball with 10 seconds left in the Christmas night game without being properly set on offense that the Cowboys bench thought they had won. That and, frankly, Jeff Triplett leaves much to be desired when it comes to portraying confidence in the calls he makes (the man looks so beaten down with every call, he makes Toby from "The Office" seem peppier than Oprah giving away cars to her audience).

You know the rest of that game, the Cardinals ended up with 10 seconds left on the clock from the time the ball was spiked, no runoff for not getting their offensive line set on that spike-play, and kicked the game-winning field goal on the next snap.

And that's not the first time this has happened in the NFL either.

Monday, November 29, 2010

God drops touchdown; public crucifies receiver

One of the wackier sports stories of the weekend came down late Sunday when Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson tweeted his frustrations about dropping what would have been the game-winning touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers in overtime. It was a ball that hit him in the hands, and he flat dropped it. That wasn't the controversy. Receivers drop balls all the time. They don't however then lash out at God as a result.

And, unlike most of the sports-loving public out there, I don't have any problem with his frustrations or the way he expressed them.

If you haven't seen it yet, here are the comments he posted on his twitter account:

Okay, now before you get all up in arms, let's take a breather. Calm down. Let's look at this objectively as well as somewhat spiritually.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

I'd be Lion if...

Lots of football fans felt some form of outrage of the perceived injustice in Chicago's 19-14 win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Detroit wide out Calvin Johnson hauled in the game-winning touchdown with :24 seconds to spare which would have put Detroit above .500 for the first time since the Nixon Clinton administration. Instead, the referees said that Johnson did not maintain possession through the catch, overturned the touchdown, and the Chicago Bears held on to win.

Sure, it sucks for the people of Detroit who, frankly, have needed a win worse than Cowboys tackle Alex Barron needs anonymity, but the refs got the ruling correct. Furthermore, this is a rule that - despite what many are saying - should not be changed in the offseason.

I know, I know. How can this be?! Clearly Johnson had the ball. Blah Blah. Just hear me out...

The entire purpose of this rule is to provide the clear, undeniable ability of a referee to determine the catch was made. Decisively. Conclusively. With a rule that dictates a receiver must control the ball through the process of the catch, there should be no doubt of if a player made the catch or not. I don't know if Johnson would have held on or not, but I know that the ground contacted the ball after the catch, and the ball came free, and the Johnson got up to celebrate. Perhaps it was a bit of salesmanship on his part, going immediately into the celebration because he knew that the ground was the primarily catalyst for the ball leaving his palm.

If Johnson had simply held onto the ball, it's an easy touchdown. He either A. felt the need to get up and celebrate early before ensuring he controlled the ball, or B. knew the ball was coming loose and tried to "sell" the play to the best of his abilities.

The NFL has these rules to ensure conclusiveness on these calls. It's the reason that the "force out" rule no longer applies and a receive MUST land both feet in bounds. It's to take away from the judgement of a referee that a receive "would have landed in bounds if" the defensive back hadn't pushed him out. That word "if" is the big problem. By taking out that "if" and making everything cut-and-dried, there is less controversy over these calls.

It's like baseball. A player is either safe or out. There is no tie (except for an All-Star Game Bud Selig would like to forget). It's either a catch or incomplete.

The purpose of the rule is to remove the gray area. It's black or white. Either or, but not both. And in Week 1, the Lions couldn't catch a break. Well, they could have, had they possessed it throughout the catch. Instead, their attempt to start the season 1-0 fell incomplete.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

SB XLIV: Saints Colts

Initial thoughts on the match up for Super Bowl XLIV, this is going to be a great game to watch providing the Saints are able to get over celebrating their Conference Championship. If they can show up and play like the Saints we saw against the Vikings, they will provide a much tougher test than the Bears gave Peyton Manning and the Colts a few years ago.

It could be a potentially ugly match-up in Miami, however, if the Saints treat this victory as their Super Bowl, a la LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2007, who wilted in the finals against the Spurs after winning the NBA's Eastern Conference. Just getting to the Super Bowl is so meaningful for the franchise and the city of New Orleans to represent the city's true resurgence. If anything, the Saints making the Super Bowl should shed some light on how parts of the city of New Orleans have not and will not ever come back. In all seriousness, it's a story worth telling and worth reminding people of.

The Vikings dominated the ebb and flow of the NFC Championship, out-gaining the Saints in total yards (475 to 257), total plays (82 to 55), time of possession (36:49 to 27:56). Offensively, the stats said it was all Minnesota. But it's hard to argue against the important of the turnover ratio. Five times a Vikings drive ended with a turnover, including a Brett Favre interception in the waning moments of regulation that cost the Vikes a chance to attempt a game-winning field goal.

Thursday, December 31, 2009

AFC Clusterf***

We're coming up on the final week of the NFL regular season. Josh has already given you a bit of a rundown on the NFC playoff scenarios, so I thought I would attempt to shed some light on how the AFC might play out. (Keyword: Attempt)


First.. here are the current records and standings:

1. Colts 14-1

2. Chargers 12-3

3. Patriots 10-5

4. Bengals 10-5

5. Broncos 8-7

6. Jets 8-7


7. Ravens 8-7

8. Texans 8-7

9. Steelers 8-7

10. Dolphins 7-8

11. Jaguars 7-8

12. Titans 7-8 (OUT)


Clearly, the Colts and Chargers have 1 and 2 respectively all wrapped up. Patriots and Bengals share conference records and are both 2-2 in games against common opponents. Each of their last games is against another common opponent, so we must go to the Strength of Victory Tiebreaker. There, Opponents in Patriots wins currently have a very slight margin in that category. If the two teams end up tied, there placement could easily come down to how the rest of the league preforms. Frankly, it doesn't matter much. One of them will be #3 and one will be #4.


So, with the easy stuff out of the way, let's look at the Wild Card Picture.. yeesh.


Here is ESPN's listing of how different teams can make the playoffs...


I'm going to try to explain why this is all true. All of my explanations assume no ties.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Fighting for the bye

Week 17 in the NFL is on the horizon, and while the AFC playoff picture is a bit more convoluted, the NFC has four teams vying for the No. 2 seed and first-round bye. With Chicago's upset of Minnesota, the Eagles, Vikings, Cardinals and Cowboys all have a chance to earn an extra week off. Here's how and why:

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

AFC Playoff Tiebreaker Breakdown

With Week 15 in the AFC now in the books, more than half of the conference is still alive for sixth playoff spots. Specifically, 12 teams are fighting for four spots that have not been locked up. This will take you through all the tiebreaker situations and scenarios to let you know which team holds the advantage one what tiebreakers down the stretch (similar to the breakdown done for the complicated NFC playoff picture last season).

Here's a look at the current standings in the AFC:

1Indianapolis - *14-0
2San Diego - z11-3
3New England9-5
4Cincinnati9-5
5Baltimore8-6
6Denver8-6
7Jacksonville7-7
8Miami7-7
9N.Y. Jets7-7
10Pittsburgh7-7
11Tennessee7-7
12Houston7-7
* - clinched home field advantage, z - clinched division

Lots of teams still alive in the playoff hunt with half a dozen teams at 7-7. Obviously next week's games will go a long way to eliminate a chunk of the field, but for now everyone still has a chance. So with everyone still mathematically alive, here's an idea of why certain teams Jacksonville are #7 while others like Tennessee and Houston would need even more help. We'll keep Indianapolis out of all our analysis as they are already locked into the #1 seed. There are 11 other teams however still jockeying for position.

Tiebreakers in the NFL are as follows for the wild card berths:
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

For this exercise, we ignore the head-to-head step as it takes a simple glance at the regular season to solve. We're digging deeper. First, the best W-L-T percentage in the conference. Whoever has the best conference record gets the higher seed. For example, while the Ravens have a head-to-head win over the Broncos this year (tiebreaker #1), had those teams not played, the Ravens would still have the #5 seed to the Broncos #6 because of a better record in AFC games.

TeamSDNECINBALJACDENMIANYJPITHOUTEN
AFC
W-L-T
8-36-46-46-46-46-55-55-54-64-64-7
Win %.727.600.600.600.600.545.500.500.400.400.364
Rank1T-2T-2T-2T-26T-7T-7T-9T-911


So based on conference records, right now San Diego can clinch a first-round bye with one more conference win or one more New England conference loss. Likewise, while the Broncos currently hold a playoff berth, if they end up tied with Jacksonville by the end of the season, the Jags have a better conference record which could help them leapfrog the Broncos for the #6 seed.

The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Pro Bowl problem

The final Sunday in January. For years that day was synonymous with one thing and one thing only.

The Super Bowl.

But January 31, 2010 - the final Sunday in January - will bring an awkward and eerie feeling to the football world as the NFL plays it's Pro Bowl one week before Super Bowl Sunday on February 7. It's something that was decided prior to the 2009 Pro Bowl which took place in the traditional comforts of Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. But in 2010, the NFL's all-star game will be played in Miami in the exact same stadium as the Super Bowl, just one week earlier.

2010 Pro Bowl moving to Miami

It's not a new notion to have the game moved up to take place between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. The NFL has discussed it multiple times in recent years, and Goodell told the Associated Press last month that having the game precede the Super Bowl would avoid a "somewhat anticlimactic" ending to the season.

The initiative to experiment with the Pro Bowl schedule and location was discussed over the past two years with NFL club owners, the NFL Players Association, the NFL Player Advisory Council, and other players, and it received wide player and club support.

"Moving the Pro Bowl to the Sunday prior to the Super Bowl can add even more excitement to Super Bowl week, one of the most anticipated weeks of the year," said Frank Supovitz, the NFL’s senior vice president of events. "Taking the Pro Bowl to new locations can showcase our top players to more fans around the country. We are also in discussions with key leaders in Hawaii to continue our partnership with the State of Hawaii, which has embraced the Pro Bowl for 30 years."

I suppose there are some positives for this game: fans in the 48 contiguous states may be more likely to go to the game, especially in a rough economy where travel to Hawaii could get pricey. However, since when is travel to a Super Bowl city ever cheap? Fans may flock to Miami to see the Pro Bowl as part of the Super Bowl week festivities, but this game is too close to other playoff games as well as butting into the Super Bowl's spotlight.

Here's a few Pro Bowl problems that must be considered with the game being played one week ahead of the Super Bowl:

1. Participation of Super Bowl participants
Over the past three decades with the Pro Bowl calling Hawaii home, players and coaches would report to Honolulu for a week of fun and sun. The Super Bowl participants? They wouldn't get there until a day or two later, taking a winner's walk into the locker room. It's a pride thing, not being able to be there on time because your team made it to the biggest game of the year.

Now with the game preceding the Super Bowl, if a player like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees has a chance to prepare for BIGGEST GAME OF THE YEAR or horse around in some dinky exhibition game, which do you think they will choose? There are usually players who pull out of the Pro Bowl and are replaced by alternates in the game, but with the game being held a week before the Super Bowl, the teams playing for the championship - which usually represent a significantly high number of Pro Bowlers - won't be participating this season.

2008-09 Season
The original 2009 Pro Bowl roster included eight players who played the week before in the Super Bowl - five players from Arizona and three from Pittsburgh. All eight players participated in the game. (See final roster)

2007-08 Season
In 2008, the Giants and Patriots played one of the most memorable Super Bowls in recent memory. One week later, six of the eight Super Bowl participants played in the Pro Bowl, with Tom Brady and Randy Moss skipping the trip to Hawaii.

2006-07 Season
In 2007, the Colts and Bears had a combined 12 players originally selected to go to the Pro Bowl. All five Colts went, including Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Jeff Saturday. The Bears originally had seven selections, with four of those players (C Olin Kreutz, LB Tommie Harris, LB Lance Briggs, LB Brian Urlacher) bypassing the game after a tough Super Bowl loss citing injury/personal reasons. The Bears did have one player selected as an alternate Pro Bowler who reported for duty.

2005-06 Season
In 2006, after a Pittsburgh-Seattle Super Bowl in Detroit, the nine combined players on the original 2006 Pro Bowl roster from each Super Bowl participant all showed up (four Steelers, five Seahawks). In fact, these teams combined to send three additional players who were originally alternates for the game.

2004-05 Season
In 2005, the Patriots and Eagles met up in Super Bowl XXXIX. One week later, three of the five Patriots and seven of nine Eagles on the original 2005 Pro Bowl roster played in the game (total of 10 of 14 selections played). New England's Corey Dillon and Richard Seymour withdrew citing injury, as did Philadelphia's Terrell Owens and Tra Thomas. Each team also had one additional player make the Pro Bowl as an alternate.

To sum up the last five years to gage Pro Bowl participation among Super Bowl participants, 41 of 51 original Pro Bowl selections - not the injury replacements - did go on to play in the game, a rate of slightly more than 80%. It's easy to see where there could be a drop off, as many players will push themselves to play hurt in the Super Bowl, such as Terrell Owens who played on half a foot for Philly after a strong 2004 season.

The trend is easy to see. Super Bowl participants - for the most part - go to the game. That will absolutely change this season. I guarantee it! Not only do I not think that the average watermark of 80% won't be reached. I doubt that any Super Bowl participants will play in the Pro Bowl, even if it is in the same city as the Super Bowl, thus negating any extensive travel from point to point.

2. Participation of NFC/AFC Championships participants
Not only will we see a drop-off (who are we kidding, a complete NO SHOW) from Super Bowl participants, but there will also be a lack of participants from the conference championship games. The game will be played one week after these teams missed a chance to advance to the Super Bowl. When the consolation prize for some players of going to the Pro Bowl usually three weeks away, it at least allows some time for the heart to heal. Instead, for players selected to the Pro Bowl who lose in the conference championship game, this will be an ugly afterthought that many players will respectfully decline. Here's a look at players who lost in the conference championship game who have/haven't participated in recent Pro Bowls...

2008-09 season: Pittsburgh d. Baltimore, Arizona d. Philadelphia
The conference runners up last season - the Ravens and Eagles - had seven combined Pro Bowl selections, with five from Baltimore and two from Philly. All seven played the Pro Bowl three weeks after their respective conference loss.

2007-08 season: N.Y. Giants d. Green Bay, New England d. San Diego
The Packers had four original Pro Bowl selections, led by Brett Favre in his final season with the Packers. The Chargers had eight selections, with seven of the original eight playing in the game with only Antonio Gates missing the game. The Chargers did have tackle Marcus McNeill play as an alternate for the AFC. Still, of the 12 original selections, 11 suited up for the game.

2006-07 season: Chicago d. New Orleans, Indianapolis d. New England
In the year of the resurgent Saints, QB Drew Brees, T Jammal Brown, and DE Will Smith were selected to the Pro Bowl, with Brown missing the game with an injury. As for the Patriots, who finally were toppled by the Colts en route to the Super Bowl, they had one original selection - Richard Seymour - who did participate in the game. Total combined: 3 out of 4.

2005-06 season: Pittsburgh d. Denver, Seattle d. Carolina
The Panthers were trying to get back to a second Super Bowl in three years while the Broncos were looking to finally break through without John Elway. Neither came to fruition. Instead, each team sent four original selections to Hawai'i, as all eight participated in the game. (Note: this was the season the AFC went to it's third and fourth alternates to fill all three Pro Bowl QB spots. The three original AFC QB selections: Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady. Palmer and Brady withdrew from the game. First alternate Drew Brees (then of San Diego) didn't play. Second alternate Jake Plummer didn't go either. So Manning was joined by Trent Green and Steve McNair as the AFC quarterbacks. Crazy.) Total combined 8 out of 8 original selections played in the game.

2004-05 season: New England d. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia d. Atlanta
Of the 2004 season's conference runners up, the Steelers sent all six original selections (along with three alternates) to the Pro Bowl to join the four Falcons originally named to the game. That's a total of 10 out of 10 original selections.

Combining the totals over of the past five years, we see that of conference championship participants originally named to the Pro Bowl, 39 of 41 players (95%) suited up in Hawai'i. How many of those players were banged up in the NFC or AFC championship game but still were able to make the trip to Honolulu after three weeks off from the physical and mental strain suffered from falling one game shy of the Super Bowl? It seems that a lot of these guys will decide not to push themselves to get ready to play just one week after perhaps the most disappointing loss of their careers.

3. Game-planning of Pro Bowl coaches
The Pro Bowl teams are coached by the coaching staff of the teams that lose the conference championships. Last year, it was Andy Reid (Philadelphia) on the NFC sideline and John Harbaugh (Baltimore) running the AFC squad. In past seasons, those coaches had three weeks to get over their recent loss that left them one game away from the Super Bowl, take a bit of time to relax, and then head to Hawai'i and create an admittedly scaled-down game plan for the Pro Bowl.

Now with the Pro Bowl being played one week ahead of the Super Bowl here is the timeline for these coaches:
Sunday - Lose conference championship game, miss out on going to Super Bowl
Monday - Get over a loss that could have put you on the "next level" of coaching
Tuesday - Travel to the city you would have gone to a week later, but instead of reporting to Miami to coach the Super Bowl, you're prepping for the Pro Bowl amid the hype of the team that just defeated you a few days ago.
Wed/Thurs - Begrudgingly begin coaching up all-stars instead of your team
Sunday - Take the field in Miami one week ahead of when you really wanted to

Regardless of when the Pro Bowl is played - a week before or a week after the Super Bowl - it's never going to be as rewarding as coaching your team to the Super Bowl. I get that. However, it's got to be infinitely easier to deal with the consolation prize of coaching in the Pro Bowl when it's done three weeks after your team lost opposed to just seven days later as an appetizer to your conquerers showcase.

4. Trip to Honolulu Miami?
Is it really that much fun to go to places like Miami, New Orleans, San Diego, etc for the Pro Bowl? Yes, it's great for the economies of those local areas, and any city who could acquire the rights to the game would love to have it. Why not have the Pro Bowl go to other cities in the US that don't have NFL teams (hell, like Los Angeles). All you'd need is a big enough college football stadium to hold at least 50,000 or 60,000 fans. Play it in Lincoln, Neb. or Fayetteville, Ark. What about Las Vegas? (oh yeah, Pacman Jones, nevermind). Maybe Portland, Oregon or Oklahoma City.

That being said, there is a reason that the NFL doesn't shop this game around and play it in different cities each year. It might be nice for that city to have the game, but that's really all it does. There is still the matter of getting other fans up for traveling to the game, not to mention attracting players to actually PLAY in the game.

There is already a percentage of players who pull out of the Pro Bowl each year even when they aren't hurt. The lure of playing in Honolulu and bringing the whole family to the islands for a fun end-of-season vacation isn't quite the same as going to Detroit the week before a Super Bowl at Ford Field. No one wants to be in the cold weather of North Texas in January 2011 the week before Super Bowl XLV. Sure the stadium is domed, but certain places just aren't travel hotspots during winter. Honolulu presented a platform for the Pro Bowl to always have a unique feel of being somewhere special, somewhere different, somewhere that isn't on the regular road map of NFL teams. By moving the game to a location that simply follows around the Super Bowl like a wannabe lackey, it certainly tarnishes the luster of the Pro Bowl.

Conclusion
The official experiment will begin after the conference championships wrap up on January 24. We'll see just how willing and able the coaches and players of the teams who reach the conference championship game are to work the following week. Don't expect a big turnout from some of the bigger names who advance deep into the postseason. And when those big names decide not to make the trip, the fan turnout will react accordingly. And don't expect the Pro Bowl to continue it's deviation from Honolulu after this experiment flounders, flops and ultimately fails.

Will it be a December to remember?

The Dallas Cowboys late-season woes have been well-documented in the 13 seasons since America's Team last won a playoff game. With the Cowboys sitting at 8-3 with a one-game lead in the NFC East, the final five games on the 2009 schedule - perhaps the most challenging five game stretch this franchise has faced in some time - seem even more treacherous than in years past.

The Cowboys will finish the 2009 regular season with three of five games on the road, three games against NFC East rivals, and two against division-leaders including undefeated New Orleans. It begins Sunday at New York, where the Cowboys were beaten down last season without Tony Romo. And while the Giants have certainly struggled in recent weeks - going 1-5 after a 5-0 start - the Cowboys will also be facing their own recent history.

Since 1996, the last year the Cowboys won a playoff game (going 2-1 in the regular season, 1-1 in the playoffs), the December/January regular-season record for Dallas has been nothing short of sickening. And when they have made the playoffs... eh.

YearHead
Coach
Dec./Jan.
Record
Reg. Season
Record
Playoffs?
1997
Barry Switzer
0-3
6-10
--
1998
Chan Gailey
2-2
10-6
L vs. Ariz
1999
Chan Gailey
2-3
8-8
L at Min
2000
Dave Campo
1-3
5-11
--
2001
Dave Campo
3-3
5-11
--
2002
Dave Campo
0-4
5-11
--
2003
Bill Parcells
2-2
10-6
L at Car
2004
Bill Parcells
2-3
6-10
--
2005
Bill Parcells
2-3
9-7
--
2006
Bill Parcells
2-3
9-7
L at Sea
2007
Wade Phillips
2-2
13-3
L vs NYG
2008
Wade Phillips
1-3
9-7
--

In 2005 and 2008, the Cowboys finished one game out of a playoff berth, with bad December beats that could have been the difference between a playoff appearance and an early end to football in North Texas.

For the Cowboys to make the playoffs in 2009, they need to win one of the follow final five games of the season:
Week 13@ New York Giants6-5
Week 14San Diego Chargers8-3
Week 15@ New Orleans Saints11-0
Week 16@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 17Philadelphia Eagles7-4

If Dallas can win two games, they could get to 10 wins on the season and almost certainly wrap up the NFC East. If I had to pick two games that the Cowboys have the best chances to win, I suppose it would be the home game against San Diego, and either game on the road against New York or Washington. However, none of these five games could be considered "locks" like the Cowboys' last game against Oakland.

If the Cowboys win just one game, they might, might, be able to limp into the playoffs, but that would most likely only extend a 1-4 finish to the season into another postseason disappointment.

NFC Playoff Picture
The road to Super Bowl XLIV begins in just six weeks, and only with three of the NFC divisions all but locked up, it seems that just five teams will be fighting for the final three spots, with one of those teams being the NFC East Champ. The Saints, Vikings and Cardinals have 5-, 3-, and 2-game leads in their respective divisions. The Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants are all still in contention for the NFC East crown, and Green Bay and Atlanta are still fighting for Wild Card attention.

The current NFC playoff picture:

1New Orleans Saints11-0NFC South
2Minnesota Vikings10-1NFC North
3Dallas Cowboys8-3NFC East
4Arizona Cardinals7-4NFC West
5Philadelphia Eagles7-4Wild Card
6Green Bay Packers7-4Wild Card
7New York Giants6-5on the bubble
8Atlanta Falcons6-5on the bubble
9San Francisco 49ers5-6on the bubble

The playoffs would open today with the Packers at Cowboys and Eagles at Cardinals. The Eagles lost in Arizona in last season's NFC Championship game, while the Packers clunked the Cowboys at Lambeau earlier this season.

Who gets home field advantage in the NFC?
The Saints and Vikings don't play each other this season, so each team needs to keep winning down to the final week if they want to lock up home field advantage. Both the Saints (7-0) and Vikings (8-0) are undefeated in the conference, and all remaining Saints games are in the conference, so if the Saints and Vikings finish with identical records, the Vikings would claim home field with a better conference record. Still a long way off, and the remaining platter schedule for the Saints isn't extremely taxing.

The Rest of the Way
Over the final five weeks of the season, the NFC dogfight will pit most of these playoff-bound teams against each other, providing plenty of head-to-head opportunities to edge out opponents for the six spots in the conference tournament. Winner gets the Colts. Every team except the Packers will play 2 or 3 games against this pool of 9 NFC teams for the postseason. Here's a breakdown of each team's remaining opponent's records:
(click team to jump to its remaining schedule)
New Orleans Saints (11-0)22-33.400
Minnesota Vikings (10-1)29-26.527
Dallas Cowboys (8-3)35-20.636
Arizona Cardinals (7-4)25-30.455
Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)32-23.582
Green Bay Packers (7-4)27-28.491
New York Giants (6-5)32-23.582
Atlanta Falcons (6-5)29-28.509
San Francisco 49ers (5-6)21-34.382

Remaining schedules for NFC playoff contenders:
1. New Orleans Saints

Week 13@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 14@ Atlanta Falcons6-5
Week 15Dallas Cowboys8-3
Week 16Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-10
Week 17@ Carolina Panthers4-7
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 22-33 (.400)

2. Minnesota Vikings
Week 13@ Arizona Cardinals7-4
Week 14Cincinnati Bengals8-3
Week 15@ Carolina Panthers4-7
Week 16@ Chicago Bears4-7
Week 17New York Giants6-5
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 29-26 (.527)

3. Dallas Cowboys
Week 13@ New York Giants6-5
Week 14San Diego Chargers8-3
Week 15@ New Orleans Saints11-0
Week 16@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 17Philadelphia Eagles7-4
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 35-20 (.636)

4. Arizona Cardinals
Week 13Minnesota Vikings10-1
Week 14@ San Francisco 49ers5-6
Week 15@ Detroit Lions2-9
Week 16St. Louis Rams1-10
Week 17Green Bay Packers7-4
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 25-30 (.455)

5. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 13@ Atlanta Falcons6-5
Week 14@ New York Giants6-5
Week 15San Francisco 49ers5-6
Week 16Denver Broncos7-4
Week 17@ Dallas Cowboys8-3
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 32-23 (.582)

6. Green Bay Packers
Week 13Baltimore Ravens6-5
Week 14@ Chicago Bears4-7
Week 15@ Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5
Week 16Seattle Seahawks4-7
Week 17@ Arizona Cardinals7-4
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 27-28 (.491)

7. New York Giants
Week 13Dallas Cowboys8-3
Week 14Philadelphia Eagles7-4
Week 15@ Washington Redskins3-8
Week 16Carolina Panthers4-7
Week 17@ Minnesota Vikings10-1
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 32-23 (.582)

8. Atlanta Falcons
Week 13Philadelphia Eagles7-4
Week 14New Orleans Saints11-0
Week 15@ New York Jets6-6
Week 16Buffalo Bills4-8
Week 17@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-10
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 29-28 (.509)

9. San Francisco 49ers
Week 13@ Seattle Seahawks4-7
Week 14Arizona Cardinals7-4
Week 15@ Philadelphia Eagles 7-4
Week 16Detroit Lions2-9
Week 17@ St. Louis Rams1-10
Remaining Opponents Total W-L: 21-34 (.382)

Plenty of meaningful football left for everyone in the NFC playoff picture. The first round byes in the NFC appear to be all but locked in, but with very little else decided, it truly should be a December to remember (or in the case of the team that ends up struggling this month, a December to forget).

Monday, November 23, 2009

NFC Playoff Picture - Week 11 wrap up

With all the NFC teams now with 10 games in the books (the AFC still has a MNF "thriller" between Houston and Tennessee tonight), let's take a look at the playoff picture, and which teams currently have the best shots at the the Wild Card berths - especially considering three of the four NFC divisions are all but locked up with six games left.

AFCWLTDif
East
Patriots730126
Dolphins550-2
Jets46024
Bills370-73
North
Bengals73048
Steelers64047
Ravens55066
Browns190-148
South
Colts1000112
Jaguars640-36
Texans54027
Titans360-66
West
Chargers73064
Broncos640-13
Chiefs370-70
Raiders370-126
NFCWLTDif
East
Cowboys73056
Giants64031
Eagles64062
Redskins370-32
North
Vikings910113
Packers64059
Bears460-19
Lions280-120
South
Saints1000165
Falcons55024
Panthers460-46
Buccaneers190-130
West
Cardinals73053
49ers460-2
Seahawks370-37
Rams190-157

The Vikings and Cardinals each have three-game leads in the NFC North and West, respectively. The undefeated Saints are up by five games on the Falcons. Only the NFC East remains up in the air, with the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles all within a game of each other. So who is making the playoffs in the NFC?

If the playoffs started today, the NFC playoff picture would look like this:
1. New Orleans Saints, 10-0 (South)
2. Minnesota Vikings, 9-1 (North)
3. Dallas Cowboys, 7-3 (East)
4. Arizona Cardinals, 7-3 (West)
5. Philadelphia Eagles, 6-4 (WC)
6. Green Bay Packers, 6-4 (WC)

On the outside looking in:
7. New York Giants, 6-4
8. Atlanta Falcons, 5-5
9. San Francisco 49ers, 4-6
10. Carolina Panthers, 4-6
11. Chicago Bears, 4-6

A few explanations:
The Cowboys hold the No. 3 seed over the Cardinals for the time being, as Dallas has a 6-2 conference record compared to Arizona's 5-2 record in the NFC. Looking at conference records, you will see that Philly has a better conference record (5-2) than Green Bay (5-3) or New York (4-3).

The Eagles, Giants and Cowboys will all get a chance to face each other in the back half of the season with games against each other.
Week 13 (Dec 6): Dallas @ Giants
Week 14 (Dec 13): Philadelphia @ Giants
Week 17 (Jan 3): Philadelphia @ Dallas

The Cowboys do hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Falcons and Panthers, but a lot still has to happen for either of those NFC South teams to get into the postseason. This race is going to be between the Packers and the entire NFC East to determine the remaining three NFC playoff teams.

Keep an eye on the number of conference wins that these teams put up. The Cowboys remaining conference games are at New York, at New Orleans, at Washington and home against Philadelphia. Do you feel good about any of those games? The conference opponents are a 25-15 overall (.625).

The Giants have conference games left home against the Cowboys and Eagles, at Washington, home to Carolina, and at Minnesota. The conference opponents record: 29-21 (.580). It's certainly not an easy road, but the game against Minnesota on the final week of the season might be against a team with nothing to play for if they've locked up the bye, and there is no shot of catching the Saints for home field advantage.

The Eagles in the conference will be home to Washington, at Atlanta, at New York Giants, home to San Francisco, and at Dallas. It's a pretty balanced conference schedule for Philly, whose NFC opponents are 25-25 (.500) on the season, but they will be on the road against the two tough division opponents, which might make this an uphill battle for them.

Finally, the Packers finish their conference schedule at Detroit, at Chicago, home to Seattle, and at Arizona. It's a pretty comfortable conference road - the teams are combined 16-24 (.400) - compared the the schedule of the NFC East trio, so look for Green Bay to make a late-season charge. The Packers own the head-to-head over Dallas, and because they will not play New York and Philadelphia this year, the Pack might have to go down the list of tiebreakers if they are even with the Giants or Eagles. After conference record, the next tiebreaker is common opponents (minimum four). Each team plays the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Vikings and Cardinals this year, so that will be applicable if it comes down to it.

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