Dallas and Atlanta now have identical 8-5 records, but the Cowboys hold the edge in conference W-L-T percentage, giving the Boys control over the final wild card spot for now.
The Giants and Cardinals each wrapped up their divisions, while the NFC South and North are still one-game affairs. Let's take a look at the standings before checking in on the remaining schedules and tiebreaker standings after Week 14.
If the playoffs started today, who need not worry:
1. z-New York Giants (11-2)
2. Carolina Panthers (10-3)
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-5)
4. z-Arizona Cardinals (8-5)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4)
6. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
Need to keep winning:
7. Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1)
9. Washington Redskins (7-6)
10. Chicago Bears (7-6)
11. New Orleans Saints (7-6)
The Beatables:
12. Green Bay Packers (5-8)
13. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
14. Seattle Seahawks (2-11)
15. St. Louis Rams (2-11)
Needs that bailout:
16. Detroit Lions (0-13)
Thanks to the Eagles upset of the Giants last week, both first-round byes are still very much available, however, the Giants can clinch one of those with a win against the Cowboys in Dallas this weekend. At this point, there is still a very likely log jam at 10-6, so make sure to review your tiebreaker rankings below.
| Prediction Key: | Win | Loss |
| NYG | TB | ARZ | CHI | CAR | WAS | ATL | DAL | MIN | NO | PHI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11-2 | 9-4 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 10-3 | 7-6 | 8-5 | 8-5 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 7-5-1 |
| Week 13 | W @Was | W NO | L @Phi | L @Min | W @GB | L NYG | W @SD | W Sea | W Chi | L @TB | W Ari |
| Week 14 | L Phi | L @Car | W STL | W Jax | W TB | L @Bal | L @NO | L @Pit | W @Det | W Atl | W @NYG |
| Week 15 | @Dal | @Atl | Min | NO | Den | @Cin | TB | NYG | @Ari | @Chi | Cle |
| Week 16 | Car | SD | @NE | GB | @NYG | Phi | @Min | Bal | Atl | @Det | @Was |
| Week 17 | @Min | Oak | Sea | @Hou | @NO | @SF | STL | @Phi | NYG | Car | Dal |
| Predicted Final Record | 13-3 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 9-7 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 9-6-1 |
Current NFL Tiebreaker rankings
Like last week, let's analyze who holds the tiebreakers at each tiebreaking level in the NFL. We're focusing on the Wild Card tiebreakers because that's where the drama is. Quick recap of the 11 steps for breaking a tie between two wild card contenders:- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
W-L-T percentage in NFC
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
| NFC W-L-T | 8-3 | 5-5 | 7-3 | 5-4 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 6-3 | 6-4 | 4-5 |
| % | .727 | .500 | .700 | .556 | .600 | .600 | .667 | .600 | .444 |
| Rank | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | T-4 | T-4 | 3 | T-4 | 9 |
The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.
Strength of Victory
This tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.
This week: Chicago, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia and New Orleans all won, so their strength of victory records will be updated with new teams. Because the Bucs, Falcons, Cowboys and Redskins all lost, no victory means no changes in who they beat, but the records of their opponents have been updated.
*Ties in the NFL count as a half-win and half-loss, therefore the Eagles tie against the Bengals will be counted as half of a win and the game is counted in their strength of victory. Note: Donovan McNabb probably did not know this.
Strength of Schedule
This is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.
| Team | PHI | TB | CAR | WAS | NO | DAL | MIN | ATL | CHI |
| Beaten Teams | STL PIT SF ATL SEA CIN* ARI NYG | ATL CHI GB CAR SEA KC MIN DET NO | SD CHI ATL KC NO ARI OAK DET GB TB | ATL ARI DAL PHI CLE DET SEA | DEN SF OAK SD KC GB ATL | CLE PHI GB CIN TB WAS SF SEA | CAR NO DET HOU GB JAC CHI DET | DET KC GB CHI OAK NO CAR SD | IND PHI DET MIN DET STL JAX |
| Beaten Teams' Record | 47-56-1 | 49-68 | 54-76 | 36-54-1 | 36-55 | 40-62-2 | 39-65 | 39-65 | 30-60-1 |
| % | .458 | .419 | .413 | .401 | .396 | .394 | .375 | .375 | .331 |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | T-7 | T-7 | 9 |
*Ties in the NFL count as a half-win and half-loss, therefore the Eagles tie against the Bengals will be counted as half of a win and the game is counted in their strength of victory. Note: Donovan McNabb probably did not know this.
Strength of Schedule
This is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.
This week: The Eagles moved up in this category because the Giants came onto their schedule. Conversely, the Vikings strength of schedule plummeted when 0-13 Detroit appeared on their schedule again.
Strength of schedule really illuminates the road each team traveled during the regular season. It's a tiebreaker that the NFL must use every so often when teams log-jam the standings around 8-8. Usually this ends of favoring the teams in a division which plays the toughest division. This season teams in the NFC West are playing the NFC East, and because three teams in the West are severely struggling, that is reflected in the overall winning percentage of the opponents of NFC East teams.
With this formula, however, opponents that have not yet been played (Week 15-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in. A team like Washington with a .509 opponent winning percentage will likely see that number fall significantly after games against Cincinnati and San Francisco.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
I know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
As you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.
Best net points in conference games.
We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).
Best net points in all games.
It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* AFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against AFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.
Just take a look at the point differentials of teams like Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans who each saw their net points skyrocket when taking into account the entire NFL. That's because this season the NFC South played the AFC West. Note: the NFC West is playing the AFC East which could explain why Buffalo, New England, Miami and the Jets are all doing so well this year. It's not the only reason, but it certainly helps.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.
Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head (are you listening, Donovan, it's possible), 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about. Here are the net TD numbers:
| Team | PHI | NO | WAS | CHI | TB | MIN | ATL | DAL | CAR |
| Teams Played in 2008 | STL DAL PIT CHI WAS SF ATL SEA NYG CIN* BAL ARI NYG | TB WAS DEN SF MIN OAK CAR SD ATL KC GB TB ATL | NYG NO ARI DAL PHI STL CLE DET PIT DAL SEA NYG BAL | IND CAR TB PHI DET ATL MIN DET TEN GB STL MIN JAX | NO ATL CHI GB DEN CAR SEA DAL KC MIN DET NO CAR | GB IND CAR TEN NO DET CHI HOU GB TB JAC CHI DET | DET TB KC CAR GB CHI PHI OAK NO DEN CAR SD NO | CLE PHI GB WAS CIN ARI STL TB NYG WAS SF SEA PIT | SD CHI MIN ATL KC TB NO ARI OAK DET ATL GB TB |
| Opp. Record | 89-79-1 | 87-82 | 86-82-1 | 82-86-1 | 82-87 | 81-88 | 80-88-1 | 78-89-2 | 79-90 |
| % | .527 | .515 | .509 | .488 | .485 | .479 | .474 | .467 | .467 |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | T-8 | T-8 |
Strength of schedule really illuminates the road each team traveled during the regular season. It's a tiebreaker that the NFL must use every so often when teams log-jam the standings around 8-8. Usually this ends of favoring the teams in a division which plays the toughest division. This season teams in the NFC West are playing the NFC East, and because three teams in the West are severely struggling, that is reflected in the overall winning percentage of the opponents of NFC East teams.
With this formula, however, opponents that have not yet been played (Week 15-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in. A team like Washington with a .509 opponent winning percentage will likely see that number fall significantly after games against Cincinnati and San Francisco.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
I know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.
| Team | CAR | PHI | ATL | TB | NO | MIN | DAL | WAS | CHI |
| Offensive Points Allowed | 323 | 339 | 323 | 303 | 366 | 307 | 312 | 218 | 304 |
| NFC Rank | T-6 | 5 | T-6 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 10 |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 254 | 263 | 271 | 238 | 326 | 276 | 280 | 246 | 278 |
| NFC Rank | 4 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| Combined Ranking | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| Who comes out ahead | T-1 | T-1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | T-8 | T-8 |
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
As you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.
| Team | PHI | CAR | ATL | TB | NO | MIN | DAL | CHI | WAS |
| Offensive Points Allowed | 339 | 323 | 323 | 303 | 366 | 307 | 312 | 304 | 218 |
| NFL Rank | 6 | T-9 | T-9 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 29 |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 263 | 254 | 271 | 238 | 326 | 276 | 280 | 278 | 246 |
| NFL Rank | 10 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 24 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 6 |
| Combined Ranking | 16 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
| Who comes out ahead | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Best net points in conference games.
We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).
| Team | PHI | TB | MIN | CAR | DAL | CHI | ATL | NO | WAS |
| Points Scored vs. NFC | 304 | 260 | 217 | 246 | 240 | 244 | 239 | 233 | 180 |
| Points Allowed vs. NFC | 208 | 195 | 195 | 224 | 228 | 234 | 241 | 237 | 188 |
| Net | +96 | +65 | +22 | +22 | +12 | +10 | -2 | -4 | -8 |
| Tiebreaker Rank | 1 | 2 | T-3 | T-3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Best net points in all games.
It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* AFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against AFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.
Just take a look at the point differentials of teams like Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans who each saw their net points skyrocket when taking into account the entire NFL. That's because this season the NFC South played the AFC West. Note: the NFC West is playing the AFC East which could explain why Buffalo, New England, Miami and the Jets are all doing so well this year. It's not the only reason, but it certainly helps.
| Team | PHI | CAR | TB | ATL | NO | DAL | MIN | CHI | WAS |
| Points Scored vs. NFL | 339 | 323 | 303 | 323 | 366 | 312 | 307 | 304 | 218 |
| Points Allowed vs. NFL | 263 | 254 | 238 | 271 | 326 | 280 | 276 | 278 | 246 |
| Net | +76 | +69 | +65 | +52 | +40 | +32 | +31 | +26 | -28 |
| Tiebreaker Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Best net touchdowns in all games.
This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.
Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head (are you listening, Donovan, it's possible), 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about. Here are the net TD numbers:
| Team | NO | DAL | CAR | PHI | TB | CHI | ATL | MIN | WAS |
Total | 44 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 31 | 34 | 35 | 32 | 22 |
| Total TDs Allowed | 34 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 32 | 30 | 27 |
| Net | +10 | +9 | +9 | +8 | +7 | +4 | +3 | +2 | -5 |
| Tiebreaker Ranking | 1 | T-2 | T-2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
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