Looking at NFL.com, they have the current playoff standings listed 1. NYG 2. TB 3. ARZ 4. MIN 5. CAR 6. ATL. Both Atlanta and Dallas have an 8-4 record, and based on the NFL tiebreaking procedures, the Falcons currently hold the sixth and final NFC playoff berth.
The tiebreaking steps as it applies to the Falcons and Cowboys thru 13 weeks (12 games) of the 2008 season:
Step 1: Head-to-head (if applicable)
The Cowboys and Falcons are not scheduled to play during the 2008 regular season. So we must go to...
Step 2: Best won-lost-tied percentage in game played within the conference
So far this year, Dallas is 6-4 in the NFC while the Falcons are 5-3. That gives Atlanta a .625 winning percentage over the Dallas' .600. It didn't take us any more than Step 2 to determine the Falcons are currently the sixth seed while the Cowboys are on the outside looking in.
Tiebreakers are always a big topic of discussion as the NFL season dwindles down. So fascinating. All the little details of who beat whom, and what their record is can make all the difference. I still remember Carolina and Green Bay each running up the score of their respective 1999 regular season finales to gain an edge in conference point rankings (in the end the Cowboys and Lions made the playoffs thanks to preliminary tiebreakers).
This week, we're taking a look at where different teams in the NFL stand in each level of tiebreaking, and we'll keep track through the rest of the season.
Now without further adieu, here are your NFC standings after Week 13...
If the playoffs started today, who need not worry:
1. New York Giants (11-1)
2. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-3)
3. Arizona Cardinals (7-5)
4. Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
5. Carolina Panthers (9-3)
6. Atlanta Falcons (8-4)
Need to keep winning:
7. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
8. Washington Redskins (7-5)
9. Chicago Bears (6-6)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1)
11. New Orleans Saints (6-6)
Needs #4:
12. Green Bay Packers (5-7)
Oh, look. The NFC West:
13. San Francisco 49ers (4-8)
14. Seattle Seahawks (2-10)
15. St. Louis Rams (2-10)
Need Bill Parcells or Rick Moranis:
16. Detroit Lions (0-12)
After the Eagles plastered the Cardinals at home on Thanksgiving night, perhaps we should include Philly in our playoff spotlight. Focusing on the top 11 NFC teams, let's see the remaining schedule for each team, who has the easiest road to the playoffs, and how this could shake out.
| Prediction Key: | Win | Loss |
| NYG | TB | ARZ | CHI | CAR | WAS | ATL | DAL | MIN | NO | PHI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11-1 | 9-3 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 9-3 | 7-5 | 8-4 | 8-4 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 6-5-1 |
| Week 13 | W @Was | W NO | L @Phi | L @Min | W @GB | L NYG | W @SD | W Sea | W Chi | L @TB | W Ari |
| Week 14 | Phi | @Car | STL | Jax | TB | @Bal | @NO | @Pit | @Det | Atl | @NYG |
| Week 15 | @Dal | @Atl | Min | NO | Den | @Cin | TB | NYG | @Ari | @Chi | Cle |
| Week 16 | Car | SD | @NE | GB | @NYG | Phi | @Min | Bal | Atl | @Det | @Was |
| Week 17 | @Min | Oak | Sea | @Hou | @NO | @SF | STL | @Phi | NYG | Car | Dal |
| Predicted Final Record | 14-2 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 9-7 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 7-8-1 |
Current NFL Tiebreaker rankings
Because the wild card picture is the most cluttered, let's focus on breaking ties at the Wild Card level for now. Considering two divisions (East, West) are all but wrapped up and the South and North are still hotly contested, the final two spots are the one that require the most breakdown. I'll be excluding the Giants and Cardinals from this as both teams appear to be well in control of their respective divisions - and frankly it's just less math to deal with.
Here are the 11 steps for breaking a tie between two wild card contenders:
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
W-L-T percentage in NFC
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
| NFC W-L-T | 8-2 | 5-4 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 3-5 |
| % | .800 | .556 | .667 | .625 | .600 | .600 | .625 | .556 | .375 |
| Rank | 1 | T-7 | 2 | T-3 | T-5 | T-5 | T-3 | T-7 | 9 |
The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we will skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.
Strength of Victory
This tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
| Beaten Teams | ATL CHI GB CAR SEA KC MIN DET NO | IND PHI DET MIN DET STL | SD CHI ATL KC NO ARI OAK DET GB | DET KC GB CHI OAK NO CAR SD | CLE PHI GB CIN TB WAS SF SEA | NO ARI DAL PHI CLE DET SEA | CAR NO DET HOU GB JAC CHI | STL PIT SF ATL SEA CIN* ARI | DEN SF OAK SD KC GB |
| Beaten Teams' Record | 45-63 | 23-48-1 | 41-67 | 35-61 | 38-56-2 | 33-50-1 | 35-49 | 33-50-1 | 25-47 |
| % | .417 | .326 | .380 | .365 | .406 | .393 | .417 | .393 | .347 |
| Rank | T-1 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 3 | T-4 | T-1 | T-4 | 8 |
*Ties in the NFL count as a half-win and half-loss, therefore the Eagles tie against the Bengals will be counted as half of a win and the game is counted in their strength of victory.
Strength of Schedule
This is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
| Teams Played in 2008 | NO ATL CHI GB DEN CAR SEA DAL KC MIN DET NO | IND CAR TB PHI DET ATL MIN DET TEN GB STL MIN | SD CHI MIN ATL KC TB NO ARI OAK DET ATL GB | DET TB KC CAR GB CHI PHI OAK NO DEN CAR SD | CLE PHI GB WAS CIN ARI STL TB NYG WAS SF SEA | NYG NO ARI DAL PHI STL CLE DET PIT DAL SEA NYG | GB IND CAR TEN NO DET CHI HOU GB TB JAC CHI | STL DAL PIT CHI WAS SF ATL SEA NYG CIN* BAL ARI | TB WAS DEN SF MIN OAK CAR SD ATL KC GB TB |
| Opp. Record | 66-78 | 72-71-1 | 65-79 | 66-77-1 | 65-77-2 | 74-69-1 | 74-60 | 73-70-1 | 74-70 |
| % | .458 | .503 | .451 | .462 | .458 | .517 | .514 | .510 | .514 |
| Rank | T-7 | 5 | 9 | 6 | T-7 | 1 | T-2 | 4 | T-2 |
Strength of schedule really illuminates the road each team traveled during the regular season. It's a tiebreaker that the NFL must use every so often when teams log-jam the standings around 8-8. Usually this ends of favoring the teams in a division which plays the toughest division. This season teams in the NFC West are playing the NFC East, and because three teams in the West are severely struggling, that is reflected in the overall winning percentage of the opponents of NFC East teams.
With this formula, however, opponents that have not yet been played (Week 14-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in. A team like Washington with a .517 opponent winning percentage will likely see that number fall significantly after games against Cincinnati and San Francisco.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
I know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
Offensive | 280 | 281 | 285 | 298 | 299 | 208 | 287 | 319 | 337 |
| NFC Rank | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 200 | 268 | 231 | 242 | 260 | 222 | 260 | 249 | 301 |
| NFC Rank | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | T-7 | 3 | T-7 | 6 | 11 |
| Combined Ranking | 12 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| Who comes out ahead | T-2 | 9 | T-5 | T-2 | T-5 | 8 | 7 | 1 | T-2 |
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
As you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
Offensive | 280 | 281 | 285 | 298 | 299 | 208 | 287 | 319 | 337 |
| NFL Rank | 17 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 4 |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 200 | 268 | 231 | 242 | 260 | 222 | 260 | 249 | 301 |
| NFL Rank | 4 | 18 | 7 | 8 | T-15 | 6 | T-15 | 10 | 23 |
| Combined Ranking | 21 | 34 | 21 | 17 | 23 | 34 | 28 | 16 | 27 |
| Who comes out ahead | T-3 | T-8 | T-3 | 2 | 5 | T-8 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
Best net points in conference games.
We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
Points | 237 | 244 | 208 | 214 | 240 | 180 | 197 | 284 | 204 |
| Points Allowed vs. NFC | 157 | 234 | 201 | 212 | 228 | 188 | 179 | 194 | 212 |
| Net | +80 | +10 | +7 | +2 | +12 | -8 | +18 | +90 | -8 |
| Tiebreaker Rank | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | T-8 | 3 | 1 | T-8 |
Best net points in all games.
It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* AFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against AFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.
Just take a look at the point differentials of teams like Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans who each saw their net points skyrocket when taking into account the entire NFL. That's because this season the NFC South played the AFC West. Note: the NFC West is playing the AFC East which could explain why Buffalo, New England, Miami and the Jets are all doing so well this year. It's not the only reason, but it certainly helps.
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
Total | 280 | 281 | 285 | 298 | 299 | 208 | 287 | 319 | 337 |
| Total Points Allowed | 200 | 268 | 231 | 242 | 260 | 222 | 260 | 249 | 301 |
| Net | +80 | +13 | +54 | +56 | +39 | -14 | +27 | +70 | +36 |
| Tiebreaker Ranking | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
Best net touchdowns in all games.
This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.
Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head (are you listening, Donovan, it's possible), 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about. Here are the net TD numbers:
| Team | TB | CHI | CAR | ATL | DAL | WAS | MIN | PHI | NO |
Total | 28 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 36 | 21 | 30 | 35 | 41 |
| Total TDs Allowed | 19 | 29 | 25 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 29 | 27 | 31 |
| Net | +9 | +3 | +7 | +3 | +10 | -3 | +1 | +8 | +10 |
| Tiebreaker Ranking | 3 | T-6 | 5 | T-6 | T-1 | 9 | 8 | 4 | T-1 |
No comments:
Post a Comment