Tuesday, December 16, 2008

NFC Playoff Picture - Week 15 wrap up

Get ready for the payoff of all the tiebreaker numbers. With only two weeks left in the regular season, only 10 teams are alive to make the playoffs in the NFC, with two of them (NYG, ARZ) already having clinched their division last week. The Giants and Panthers, each now 11-3, play next week in the Meadowlands, and the winner will clinch the first round bye as a result of what will end up being either a better record or a head-to-head win. Ah hah!

The Vikings still hold a 1-game lead over the Bears in the NFC North, but the Bears have an easier schedule to finish the season. (see remaining games below)

And then there's the wild card picture. Technically the Panthers haven't clinched the NFC South, but it is very unlikely for the Panthers to miss the playoffs from their perch at this point. So with Dallas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta all sitting at 9-5 (and the Eagles who are only a half-game back at 8-5-1 ... ties count for a half-win and half-loss), the wild card picture officially won't be set until Week 17 wraps up.

Here's the current standings, followed by remaining schedules, and of course a look at where teams stand in our Ultimate Tiebreaker Rankings to better understand the current NFC playoff picture.

If the playoffs started today, who need not worry:
1. z-New York Giants (11-3)
2. Carolina Panthers (11-3)
3. Minnesota Vikings (9-5)
4. z-Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
5. Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)

Need to keep winning:
7. Atlanta Falcons (9-5)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1)
9. Chicago Bears (8-6)
10. Washington Redskins (7-7)

Newly eliminated - don't worry, I'll explain why despite the identical 7-7 record as Washington
11. New Orleans Saints (7-7)

Lower echelon:
12. Green Bay Packers (5-9)
13. San Francisco 49ers (5-9)
14. Seattle Seahawks (3-11)
15. St. Louis Rams (2-12)

The road to futility goes through Detroit:
16. Detroit Lions (0-14)

With Atlanta beating Tampa Bay this week, evening the teams with Dallas at 9-5, this log jam gets tricky, especially when you consider conference records. The Eagles have a nice chance to play their way into the playoffs thanks to the tie game. While I'm still not sure how you tie the Bengals, I have always been sure ties are possible in the NFL. The Redskins still have an outside shot, but their window could close next week with a loss to the Eagles. The winner of that game still has a chance, but the loser is essentially eliminated. Not only that, the Redskins could win but be eliminated if teams like Dallas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta earn victories. It's so complicated, so great.

Prediction Key:WinLoss

NYGTBARZCHICARWASATLDALMINNOPHI
W-L11-39-58-68-611-37-79-59-59-57-78-5-1
Week 13W
@Was
W
NO
L
@Phi
L
@Min
W
@GB
L
NYG
W
@SD
W
Sea
W
Chi
L
@TB
W
Ari
Week 14L
Phi
L
@Car
W
STL
W
Jax
W
TB
L
@Bal
L
@NO
L
@Pit
W
@Det
W
Atl
W
@NYG
Week 15L
@Dal
L
@Atl
L
Min
W
NO
W
Den
L
@Cin
W
TB
W
NYG
W
@Ari
L
@Chi
W
Cle
Week 16CarSD@NEGB@NYGPhi@MinBalAtl@Det@Was
Week 17@MinOakSea@Hou@NO@SFSTL@PhiNYGCarDal
Predicted
Final
Record
12-411-59-710-612-48-810-611-511-58-89-6-1


Current NFL Tiebreaker rankings


The third week of breaking down the tiebreakers, and now things are becoming clearer.  (tiebreaker standings: Week 13, Week 14) [Travel back in time to freshman algebra, and show your work--> ]

We're focusing on the Wild Card tiebreakers as that's where the fun is found. Here's the 11 steps for breaking a tie between two wild card contenders:
  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.
For this exercise, we ignore the head-to-head step as it takes a simple glance at the regular season to solve. We're digging deeper. First, the best W-L-T percentage in the conference.

W-L-T percentage in NFC

TeamCARMINTBDALATLPHIWASCHINO
NFC
W-L-T
7-37-38-47-46-46-46-46-54-6
%.700.700.667.636.600.600.600.545.400
RankT-1T-134T-5T-5T-589

Why the Saints have been eliminated: Just take a look at the conference record of the New Orleans Saints.  That 4-6 mark leaves them in a position to finish at best 6-6 in the NFC.  When considering that they would not only need to win out but have either Tampa Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington and Chicago to lose out (which isn't all that possible because of games against each), the Cowboys and Bucs each already have more than six conference wins, they won't be losing this tiebreaker to the Saints.  And thus, on a cold day in Chicago, the New Orleans Saints 2008 campaign fell short.

The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.

Strength of Victory
This tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.

This week: Philadelphia, Dallas, Carolina, Minnesota, and Chicago all won, so their strength of victory records will be updated with new teams. Because the others lost, no victory means no changes in who they beat, but the records of their opponents have been updated.  Last week, the Cowboys had a .394 strength of victory compared to their .4365 mark this week thanks to a win over the 11-3 Giants.  The Eagles, however, still hold the edge in this tiebreaker despite adding a win over mediocre Cleveland last night.

TeamPHIDALTBWASCARATLMINCHINO
Teams
Beaten
STL
PIT
SF
ATL
SEA
CIN*
ARI
NYG
CLE
CLE
PHI
GB
CIN
TB
WAS
SF
SEA
NYG
ATL
CHI
GB
CAR
SEA
KC
MIN
DET
NO
ATL
ARI
DAL
PHI
CLE
DET
SEA
SD
CHI
ATL
KC
NO
ARI
OAK
DET
GB
TB
DEN
DET
KC
GB
CHI
OAK
NO
CAR
SD
TB
CAR
NO
DET
HOU
GB
JAC
CHI
DET
ARZ
IND
PHI
DET
MIN
DET
STL
JAX
NO
DEN
SF
OAK
SD
KC
GB
ATL
Beaten
Teams'
Record
55-70-154-70-254-7241-56-165-8951-7551-7541-70-138-60
%.4373.4365.429.423.422.405.405.371(.388)
Rank12345T-6T-68OUT

*Ties in the NFL count as a half-win and half-loss, therefore the Eagles tie against the Bengals will be counted as half of a win and the game is counted in their strength of victory. Note: Donovan McNabb probably did not know this.

Strength of Schedule
This is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.

This week: It's kind of funny that the Browns dropped the Eagles strength of schedule enough this week for the Saints strength of schedule percentage to pass them (New Orleans played 8-6 Chicago compared to Philly playing the 4-10 Browns).  Too bad the Saints were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention a few tiebreakers ago.  Other than that, not a whole lot shifted here.

TeamNOPHITB WASCHIMINATLDALCAR
Teams
Played
in
2008
TB
WAS

DEN
SF
MIN
OAK
CAR
SD
ATL
KC
GB
TB
ATL
CHI
STL
DAL

PIT
CHI
WAS
SF
ATL
SEA
NYG
CIN*
BAL
ARI
NYG
CLE

NO
ATL
CHI
GB
DEN
CAR
SEA
DAL
KC
MIN
DET
NO
CAR
ATL
NYG
NO
ARI
DAL
PHI
STL
CLE
DET
PIT
DAL

SEA
NYG
BAL
CIN
IND
CAR
TB

PHI
DET
ATL
MIN
DET
TEN
GB

STL
MIN
JAX
NO

GB
IND

CAR
TEN
NO
DET
CHI
HOU
GB
TB
JAC
CHI
DET
ARZ
DET
TB

KC
CAR
GB
CHI
PHI
OAK
NO
DEN
CAR
SD
NO
TB
CLE
PHI
GB
WAS
CIN
ARI
STL

TB
NYG
WAS
SF
SEA
PIT
NYG
SD
CHI
MIN
ATL
KC
TB
NO
ARI
OAK
DET
ATL
GB
TB
DEN
Opp.
Record
100-9699-96-198-9896-98-296-99-195-10194-101-193-101-292-104
%(.510).508.500.495.490.485.482.480.469
RankOUT12345678

With this formula, opponents that have not yet been played (Weeks 16-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in. A team like Washington with a .495 opponent winning percentage will see that number fall significantly again after a game against San Francisco after Cincinnati coming on the schedule dropped them this week.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
I know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.

TeamCARPHITBNOATLMINDALWASCHI
Offensive
Points
Allowed
353369313390336342332231331
NFC Rank651118791510
Defensive
Points
Allowed
264281251353281290288266302
NFC Rank3521268749
Combined
Ranking
91013131415161919
Who comes
out ahead
123OUT456T-7T-7

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
As you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.

TeamCARPHIATLTBMINDALNOCHIWAS
Offensive
Points
Allowed
353369336313342332390331231
NFL Rank761219111311429
Defensive
Points
Allowed
264281251251290288353302266
NFL Rank69115131225147
Combined
Ranking
131523242425262836
Who comes
out ahead
123T-4T-46OUT78


Best net points in conference games.
We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).

TeamPHITBMINDALCARCHIATLNOWAS
Points
Scored vs.
NFC
304270252260246271252257180
Points
Allowed vs.
NFC
208208209236224258251264188
Net+96+62+43+24+22+13+1-7-8
Tiebreaker
Rank
1234567OUT8


Best net points in all games.
It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* AFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against AFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.

Just take a look at the point differentials of teams like Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans who each saw their net points skyrocket when taking into account the entire NFL. That's because this season the NFC South played the AFC West. Note: the NFC West is playing the AFC East which could explain why Buffalo, New England, Miami and the Jets are all doing so well this year. It's not the only reason, but it certainly helps.

TeamPHICARTBATLMINDALNOCHIWAS
Points
Scored
vs. NFL
369353313336343
332
390331231
Points
Allowed
vs. NFL
273264251281290
288
353302266
Net+96+89+62+55+53+44+37+29-35
Tiebreaker
Rank
123456OUT78


Best net touchdowns in all games.
This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.

Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head (are you listening, Donovan, it's possible), 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about. Here are the net TD numbers:
TeamDALCARPHINOTBMINCHIATLWAS

Total
TDs
Scored

404040473237373623
Total
TDs
Allowed
282930372532333329
Net+12+11+10+10+7+5+4+3-6
Tiebreaker
Ranking
123OUT45678

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