The Vikings still hold a 1-game lead over the Bears in the NFC North, but the Bears have an easier schedule to finish the season. (see remaining games below)
And then there's the wild card picture. Technically the Panthers haven't clinched the NFC South, but it is very unlikely for the Panthers to miss the playoffs from their perch at this point. So with Dallas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta all sitting at 9-5 (and the Eagles who are only a half-game back at 8-5-1 ... ties count for a half-win and half-loss), the wild card picture officially won't be set until Week 17 wraps up.
Here's the current standings, followed by remaining schedules, and of course a look at where teams stand in our Ultimate Tiebreaker Rankings to better understand the current NFC playoff picture.
If the playoffs started today, who need not worry:
1. z-New York Giants (11-3)
2. Carolina Panthers (11-3)
3. Minnesota Vikings (9-5)
4. z-Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
5. Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)
Need to keep winning:
7. Atlanta Falcons (9-5)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1)
9. Chicago Bears (8-6)
10. Washington Redskins (7-7)
Newly eliminated - don't worry, I'll explain why despite the identical 7-7 record as Washington
11. New Orleans Saints (7-7)
Lower echelon:
12. Green Bay Packers (5-9)
13. San Francisco 49ers (5-9)
14. Seattle Seahawks (3-11)
15. St. Louis Rams (2-12)
The road to futility goes through Detroit:
16. Detroit Lions (0-14)
With Atlanta beating Tampa Bay this week, evening the teams with Dallas at 9-5, this log jam gets tricky, especially when you consider conference records. The Eagles have a nice chance to play their way into the playoffs thanks to the tie game. While I'm still not sure how you tie the Bengals, I have always been sure ties are possible in the NFL. The Redskins still have an outside shot, but their window could close next week with a loss to the Eagles. The winner of that game still has a chance, but the loser is essentially eliminated. Not only that, the Redskins could win but be eliminated if teams like Dallas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta earn victories. It's so complicated, so great.
| Prediction Key: | Win | Loss |
| NYG | TB | ARZ | CHI | CAR | WAS | ATL | DAL | MIN | NO | PHI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11-3 | 9-5 | 8-6 | 8-6 | 11-3 | 7-7 | 9-5 | 9-5 | 9-5 | 7-7 | 8-5-1 |
| Week 13 | W @Was | W NO | L @Phi | L @Min | W @GB | L NYG | W @SD | W Sea | W Chi | L @TB | W Ari |
| Week 14 | L Phi | L @Car | W STL | W Jax | W TB | L @Bal | L @NO | L @Pit | W @Det | W Atl | W @NYG |
| Week 15 | L @Dal | L @Atl | L Min | W NO | W Den | L @Cin | W TB | W NYG | W @Ari | L @Chi | W Cle |
| Week 16 | Car | SD | @NE | GB | @NYG | Phi | @Min | Bal | Atl | @Det | @Was |
| Week 17 | @Min | Oak | Sea | @Hou | @NO | @SF | STL | @Phi | NYG | Car | Dal |
| Predicted Final Record | 12-4 | 11-5 | 9-7 | 10-6 | 12-4 | 8-8 | 10-6 | 11-5 | 11-5 | 8-8 | 9-6-1 |
Current NFL Tiebreaker rankings
The third week of breaking down the tiebreakers, and now things are becoming clearer. (tiebreaker standings: Week 13, Week 14) [Travel back in time to freshman algebra, and show your work--> ]
We're focusing on the Wild Card tiebreakers as that's where the fun is found. Here's the 11 steps for breaking a tie between two wild card contenders:
W-L-T percentage in NFC
Why the Saints have been eliminated: Just take a look at the conference record of the New Orleans Saints. That 4-6 mark leaves them in a position to finish at best 6-6 in the NFC. When considering that they would not only need to win out but have either Tampa Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington and Chicago to lose out (which isn't all that possible because of games against each), the Cowboys and Bucs each already have more than six conference wins, they won't be losing this tiebreaker to the Saints. And thus, on a cold day in Chicago, the New Orleans Saints 2008 campaign fell short.
The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.
Strength of Victory
This tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
W-L-T percentage in NFC
| Team | CAR | MIN | TB | DAL | ATL | PHI | WAS | CHI | NO |
| NFC W-L-T | 7-3 | 7-3 | 8-4 | 7-4 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| % | .700 | .700 | .667 | .636 | .600 | .600 | .600 | .545 | .400 |
| Rank | T-1 | T-1 | 3 | 4 | T-5 | T-5 | T-5 | 8 | 9 |
Why the Saints have been eliminated: Just take a look at the conference record of the New Orleans Saints. That 4-6 mark leaves them in a position to finish at best 6-6 in the NFC. When considering that they would not only need to win out but have either Tampa Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington and Chicago to lose out (which isn't all that possible because of games against each), the Cowboys and Bucs each already have more than six conference wins, they won't be losing this tiebreaker to the Saints. And thus, on a cold day in Chicago, the New Orleans Saints 2008 campaign fell short.
The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.
Strength of Victory
This tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.
This week: Philadelphia, Dallas, Carolina, Minnesota, and Chicago all won, so their strength of victory records will be updated with new teams. Because the others lost, no victory means no changes in who they beat, but the records of their opponents have been updated. Last week, the Cowboys had a .394 strength of victory compared to their .4365 mark this week thanks to a win over the 11-3 Giants. The Eagles, however, still hold the edge in this tiebreaker despite adding a win over mediocre Cleveland last night.
*Ties in the NFL count as a half-win and half-loss, therefore the Eagles tie against the Bengals will be counted as half of a win and the game is counted in their strength of victory. Note: Donovan McNabb probably did not know this.
Strength of Schedule
This is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.
Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head (are you listening, Donovan, it's possible), 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about. Here are the net TD numbers:
| Team | PHI | DAL | TB | WAS | CAR | ATL | MIN | CHI | NO |
| Teams Beaten | STL PIT SF ATL SEA CIN* ARI NYG CLE | CLE PHI GB CIN TB WAS SF SEA NYG | ATL CHI GB CAR SEA KC MIN DET NO | ATL ARI DAL PHI CLE DET SEA | SD CHI ATL KC NO ARI OAK DET GB TB DEN | DET KC GB CHI OAK NO CAR SD TB | CAR NO DET HOU GB JAC CHI DET ARZ | IND PHI DET MIN DET STL JAX NO | DEN SF OAK SD KC GB ATL |
| Beaten Teams' Record | 55-70-1 | 54-70-2 | 54-72 | 41-56-1 | 65-89 | 51-75 | 51-75 | 41-70-1 | 38-60 |
| % | .4373 | .4365 | .429 | .423 | .422 | .405 | .405 | .371 | (.388) |
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T-6 | T-6 | 8 | OUT |
*Ties in the NFL count as a half-win and half-loss, therefore the Eagles tie against the Bengals will be counted as half of a win and the game is counted in their strength of victory. Note: Donovan McNabb probably did not know this.
Strength of Schedule
This is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.
This week: It's kind of funny that the Browns dropped the Eagles strength of schedule enough this week for the Saints strength of schedule percentage to pass them (New Orleans played 8-6 Chicago compared to Philly playing the 4-10 Browns). Too bad the Saints were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention a few tiebreakers ago. Other than that, not a whole lot shifted here.
With this formula, opponents that have not yet been played (Weeks 16-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in. A team like Washington with a .495 opponent winning percentage will see that number fall significantly again after a game against San Francisco after Cincinnati coming on the schedule dropped them this week.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
I know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
As you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.
Best net points in conference games.
We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).
Best net points in all games.
It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* AFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against AFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.
Just take a look at the point differentials of teams like Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans who each saw their net points skyrocket when taking into account the entire NFL. That's because this season the NFC South played the AFC West. Note: the NFC West is playing the AFC East which could explain why Buffalo, New England, Miami and the Jets are all doing so well this year. It's not the only reason, but it certainly helps.
| Team | NO | PHI | TB | WAS | CHI | MIN | ATL | DAL | CAR |
| Teams Played in 2008 | TB WAS DEN SF MIN OAK CAR SD ATL KC GB TB ATL CHI | STL DAL PIT CHI WAS SF ATL SEA NYG CIN* BAL ARI NYG CLE | NO ATL CHI GB DEN CAR SEA DAL KC MIN DET NO CAR ATL | NYG NO ARI DAL PHI STL CLE DET PIT DAL SEA NYG BAL CIN | IND CAR TB PHI DET ATL MIN DET TEN GB STL MIN JAX NO | GB IND CAR TEN NO DET CHI HOU GB TB JAC CHI DET ARZ | DET TB KC CAR GB CHI PHI OAK NO DEN CAR SD NO TB | CLE PHI GB WAS CIN ARI STL TB NYG WAS SF SEA PIT NYG | SD CHI MIN ATL KC TB NO ARI OAK DET ATL GB TB DEN |
| Opp. Record | 100-96 | 99-96-1 | 98-98 | 96-98-2 | 96-99-1 | 95-101 | 94-101-1 | 93-101-2 | 92-104 |
| % | (.510) | .508 | .500 | .495 | .490 | .485 | .482 | .480 | .469 |
| Rank | OUT | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
With this formula, opponents that have not yet been played (Weeks 16-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in. A team like Washington with a .495 opponent winning percentage will see that number fall significantly again after a game against San Francisco after Cincinnati coming on the schedule dropped them this week.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
I know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.
| Team | CAR | PHI | TB | NO | ATL | MIN | DAL | WAS | CHI |
| Offensive Points Allowed | 353 | 369 | 313 | 390 | 336 | 342 | 332 | 231 | 331 |
| NFC Rank | 6 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 10 |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 264 | 281 | 251 | 353 | 281 | 290 | 288 | 266 | 302 |
| NFC Rank | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| Combined Ranking | 9 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 19 |
| Who comes out ahead | 1 | 2 | 3 | OUT | 4 | 5 | 6 | T-7 | T-7 |
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
As you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.
| Team | CAR | PHI | ATL | TB | MIN | DAL | NO | CHI | WAS |
| Offensive Points Allowed | 353 | 369 | 336 | 313 | 342 | 332 | 390 | 331 | 231 |
| NFL Rank | 7 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 29 |
| Defensive Points Allowed | 264 | 281 | 251 | 251 | 290 | 288 | 353 | 302 | 266 |
| NFL Rank | 6 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 14 | 7 |
| Combined Ranking | 13 | 15 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 36 |
| Who comes out ahead | 1 | 2 | 3 | T-4 | T-4 | 6 | OUT | 7 | 8 |
Best net points in conference games.
We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).
| Team | PHI | TB | MIN | DAL | CAR | CHI | ATL | NO | WAS |
| Points Scored vs. NFC | 304 | 270 | 252 | 260 | 246 | 271 | 252 | 257 | 180 |
| Points Allowed vs. NFC | 208 | 208 | 209 | 236 | 224 | 258 | 251 | 264 | 188 |
| Net | +96 | +62 | +43 | +24 | +22 | +13 | +1 | -7 | -8 |
| Tiebreaker Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | OUT | 8 |
Best net points in all games.
It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* AFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against AFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.
Just take a look at the point differentials of teams like Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans who each saw their net points skyrocket when taking into account the entire NFL. That's because this season the NFC South played the AFC West. Note: the NFC West is playing the AFC East which could explain why Buffalo, New England, Miami and the Jets are all doing so well this year. It's not the only reason, but it certainly helps.
| Team | PHI | CAR | TB | ATL | MIN | DAL | NO | CHI | WAS |
| Points Scored vs. NFL | 369 | 353 | 313 | 336 | 343 | 332 | 390 | 331 | 231 |
| Points Allowed vs. NFL | 273 | 264 | 251 | 281 | 290 | 288 | 353 | 302 | 266 |
| Net | +96 | +89 | +62 | +55 | +53 | +44 | +37 | +29 | -35 |
| Tiebreaker Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | OUT | 7 | 8 |
Best net touchdowns in all games.
This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.
Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head (are you listening, Donovan, it's possible), 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about. Here are the net TD numbers:
| Team | DAL | CAR | PHI | NO | TB | MIN | CHI | ATL | WAS |
Total | 40 | 40 | 40 | 47 | 32 | 37 | 37 | 36 | 23 |
| Total TDs Allowed | 28 | 29 | 30 | 37 | 25 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 29 |
| Net | +12 | +11 | +10 | +10 | +7 | +5 | +4 | +3 | -6 |
| Tiebreaker Ranking | 1 | 2 | 3 | OUT | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
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